- Former President Donald Trump beat former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley by 11 points in New Hampshire on Tuesday, just over a week after winning the Iowa caucus with 51% support.
- Trump secured a majority of support from the state’s Republican and conservative voters, while Haley received the backing from 86% of self-identified Democrats and 74% “moderate/liberal” individuals, according to CNN’s exit polling.
- “Going forward, Haley will need to do far better among Republicans while also holding serve among independents in the states where they can participate,” Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
Former President Donald Trump solidified his support among the Republican electorate during the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, while former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley’s support largely came from atypical GOP voters, according to exit polling.
Trump won the Granite State with 54.3% of the vote compared to Haley’s 43.3%, meaning the former president would receive 12 of New Hampshire’s 22 bound delegates, according to CNN. The outlet’s exit polling found that Trump won a majority of Republicans, youth voters, minorities and more, while Haley secured the support largely from self-identified Democrats, urban voters and non-religious individuals.
“Haley is just too weak among conservatives/Republicans to be the Republican nominee,” Kyle Kondik, nonpartisan polling analyst and managing editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. (RELATED: ‘She Did So Well’: Nikki Haley Supporters Remain Optimistic Despite Loss To Trump In New Hampshire)
New Hampshire allows voters unaffiliated with the Republicans or Democrats to participate in either party’s primary, which made up for nearly half of the GOP primary electorate Tuesday evening, according to CNN’s exit polling.
Haley received an overwhelming amount of support from voters who self-identified as Democrats at 86% compared to only 25% of Republicans who backed the former ambassador, the polls found. Only 27% of conservatives supported Haley, while 74% of those who identified as “moderate/liberal” voted for the former ambassador.
Additionally, the majority of Haley’s support came from registered undeclared voters at 64%, while Trump received the backing from 74% of registered Republicans, according to the polls.
“Going forward, Haley will need to do far better among Republicans while also holding serve among independents in the states where they can participate,” Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, told the DCNF. “That probably means challenging former President Trump more directly on issues: Ukraine, China, maybe even entitlement reform and job creation.”
The exit polls found that Trump secured the support from key voting blocs that are crucial in a general election, including minorities, youth voters and suburban women — all of which President Joe Biden won in 2020.
The former president won a higher share of minority voters than white ones at 58% to 54%, respectively, according to the polls. Conversely, Haley won over more white voters than minorities, which only made up for 7% of the electorate in New Hampshire.
“I do think it is worth watching non-white participation in the primaries going forward,” said McHenry. “If participation is more diverse, that may say something about the eventual nominee’s ability to take votes that have traditionally gone to Democrats.”
CONCORD, NEW HAMPSHIRE – JANUARY 23: Republican presidential candidate former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley takes the stage at her primary night rally at the Grappone Conference Center. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
While Trump beat Haley among every age group, his largest margin was among those aged 18 to 29, the polls found. The former president won over the demographic 58% to 36%.
Haley won urban voters 52% to 43%, but lost suburban and rural individuals by 13 and 16 points, respectively, according to the polls. Trump secured suburban women by 6 points, and also received a majority of support from unmarried men and women.
“If you look at the geography, Haley won all the liberal areas of the state: Concord, Seacoast, Keene, Hanover and some of the more random moderate/liberal towns like Amherst and Bedford,” Mike Dennehy, a veteran New Hampshire GOP strategist, told the DCNF. “Those demographics follow more ideologically with the Republican Party in NH.”
The former ambassador won half of those who said they “never” attend religious services, the polls found. Conversely, Haley lost those who said they attend religious services at least weekly and “occasionally” to Trump.
“Haley’s voters look a lot like D voters: no church attendance, no guns,” Mike McKenna, a Republican consultant and president of MWR Strategies, told the DCNF. “President Trump won because he focused on issues. Governor Haley lost, in part, because she focused on her personal identity. It’s time to move on to the main event.”
A majority of voters who said someone in their home owns a gun voted for Trump at 62%, while only 36% who said the same backed Haley, according to the polling.
The next nominating contests will take place in Nevada and South Carolina, Haley’s home state in which she’s hoping for a big turnout. Nevada‘s state-run primary is on Feb. 6 and its party caucus is two days later, while South Carolina’s primary is on Feb. 24.
Trump is currently leading Haley by 30.2 points in South Carolina in the RealClearPolitics average, and has the support from its Republican governor and two GOP senators.
Neither Trump nor Haley’s campaign immediately responded to the DCNF’s requests for comment.
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