As the political pundits rush to highlight Nikki Haley’s meager share of her home state’s election tally as a sign of weakness in Donald Trump’s candidacy, they miss the forest for the trees. Their eagerness to jump on this narrative says more about the media’s desperation than about Trump’s electoral prospects.

The truth is, primary elections are poor indicators of what’s to come in the general elections. History shows us that even the most disaffected primary voter tends to return to their party’s fold by the time November rolls around.

The mainstream media, in their bid to bolster Biden’s prospects this fall, will undoubtedly focus on social issues, framing Republicans as out of touch with moderate voters. Yet, they fail to see that this sword cuts both ways. The Democrats face their own internal struggle, with a significant faction pushing the party further left, potentially alienating centrist voters.

When it comes to presidential elections, the real battleground is how swing-state voters perceive their current circumstances and future prospects. Economic factors, especially inflation under the Biden administration, loom large. Prices may have stabilized for the moment, but they’re not dropping — and they’re much higher than they were four years ago under Trump.

The cost of living, particularly food prices, is set to be the defining issue of this election cycle. The Wall Street Journal recently reported that in 2022, “U.S. consumers spent 11.3% of their disposable income on food” — a 30-year high. 

Kellogg’s recent move to launch an ad campaign promoting cereal for dinner is not just a marketing strategy; it’s a glaring reminder of the economic distress people are experiencing. It also inadvertently serves as a multi-million dollar ad for Trump’s campaign by reminding voters of the current administration’s shortcomings.

As summer progresses, expect a deluge of articles and think-pieces attempting to downplay the severity of food prices, but these will be shared on social media by the people who won’t have to face the stark choice of feeding their children Frosted Flakes for dinner or watching them go hungry. For many, the reality is that “Breakfast for Dinner” isn’t just a quirky meal choice — it’s a necessity born from economic hardship. 

This election won’t be won on rhetoric or media spin. It will be decided in the grocery aisles and at the dinner tables of the average American. This is the “Breakfast for Dinner” election, and it’s this stark, lived experience of voters that will likely see Donald Trump elected once again.

Jai Chabria is managing director at MAD Global Strategy and a Republican political strategist.