Pollster Frank Luntz Reveals Which Two States Will Be Key Bellwethers In 2024 Election


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Jason Cohen Contributor
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Pollster Frank Luntz noted Wednesday that Arizona and Nevada will act as a key bellwether in determining the victor in 2024’s presidential election,

Democrats, including President Joe Biden, typically win with Latinos but former President Donald Trump has been gaining support with the crucial voting bloc. Both Arizona and Nevada have large Latino populations, making them potentially representative of a nationwide demographic that comprises a significant portion of the electorate, Luntz asserted on “CNN News Central.”

“I‘m actually looking at Arizona and Nevada. They’re not the biggest states, you combine them and you basically equal one Pennsylvania,” Luntz said. “But Arizona and Nevada have a very high Latino, Hispanic vote. That vote normally votes Democrat by about 15%. Donald Trump has pulled even with them and if that stays, it means that Arizona will switch sides, Nevada will switch sides.”


Hispanics were the most likely group to rank immigration as their most pressing issue facing the country today, according to an Associated Press (AP)-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll published in January. A total of 43% of Hispanic adults identified immigration as the number one priority, surpassing 36% of white respondents, 29% of Asians and Pacific Islanders and 19% of black respondents.

“And it tells you that the Latino vote, 20%, can be 20% of the electorate. To me that’s the deciding vote and if they switch in Arizona, in Nevada, I would expect it to be happening nationwide, so watching those two states are my indicator of what’s going to happen in 2024,” Luntz concluded.

Border Patrol recorded roughly 1.7 million migrant encounters at the southern border in 2021; that number rose to over 2.2 million in fiscal year 2022, according to Customs and Border Protection data.

Trump gained a lead over Biden among Latinos, receiving 46% support while the president received 40%, according to a Saturday New York Times and Siena College poll. The significant advantage that the Democratic Party previously held over Republicans with Hispanic Americans aged 18 to 29 has plunged by nearly 20% in the last three years, according to Gallup polling data published in February.

Trump is presently beating Biden in a likely 2024 rematch by 2.3 points in the RealClearPolitics average.

The president is also struggling with shoring up support among other key voting blocks besides Latinos, including the Arab and Muslim communities, which have soured on Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict.

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