New Poll Throws Wrench Into Dems’ Dreams Of Winning State Where Abortion Is On Ballot

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A poll released on Thursday found President Joe Biden down by double digits against former President Donald Trump in Florida following the state Supreme Court’s ruling to allow an abortion amendment on the ballot in November.

Trump led Biden 51% to 38% among registered Florida voters, with 11% remaining undecided, according to an Emerson College survey. The poll also found a plurality of voters supporting the abortion ballot measure at 42% — including 35% of Trump supporters and 58% of Biden supporters — while 25% opposed it and 32% were unsure. (RELATED: Florida Supreme Court Orders Abortion Amendment Be Placed On Ballot In November)

The state Supreme Court ruled on April 1 that an amendment stating “no law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider” could be on the ballot after a challenge from Republican Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody.

After the decision, Biden’s campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez called the state, which voted Republican in the last two presidential elections, “winnable” in a memo.

“Make no mistake: Florida is not an easy state to win, but it is a winnable one for President Biden, especially given Trump’s weak, cash-strapped campaign, and serious vulnerabilities within his coalition,” Rodriguez wrote. “Winning Florida requires being strategic with resources, while putting in the work early and often to reach its many diverse constituencies. That’s exactly what Team Biden-Harris is doing. ”

MIAMI, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 22: Democratic Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is interviewed during a campaign event at the United Teachers of Dade headquarters building on February 22, 2024 in Miami, Florida. Mucarsel-Powell is campaigning to become the challenger to incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) in the general election. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

MIAMI, FLORIDA – FEBRUARY 22: Democratic Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is interviewed during a campaign event at the United Teachers of Dade headquarters building. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

The same poll also found Republican Sen. Rick Scott beating former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by seven points for a head-to-head matchup, with 17% of Floridians remaining undecided. Roughly 31% of Scott supporters also said they’d back the abortion ballot measure compared to 56% of Mucarsel-Powell voters.

“This poll shows that Senator Scott’s efforts to fight for Floridians in the Senate is working,” Jonathan Turcotte, spokesperson for the Scott campaign, told the Daily Caller News Foundation in a statement. “He’s already campaigned in nearly 70% of Florida’s counties and will continue to travel the state telling Floridians about his plan to fix the mess Joe Biden created. Senator Scott also recently announced a 7-figure ad buy that warns Floridians about the horrors of socialist policies embraced by Democrats. Floridians rejected Debbie Mucarsel-Powell once and they are getting ready to reject her again.”

Mucarsel-Powell’s campaign is hoping that the issue being on the ticket in November would boost Democratic turnout for her in the red state. After the state Supreme Court’s decision, the Democrat launched a “Florida Freedom Tour” to advocate against the state’s recently upheld six week abortion ban.

The Florida Supreme Court also ruled on April 1 that abortion is not a right in the state’s constitution, allowing Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ Heartbeat Protection Act to take effect. The legislation reeled back the state’s previous 15-week abortion ban to six weeks gestation, and allows only for exceptions of rape, incest, human trafficking and when the life of the mother is at risk.

Trump revealed his abortion stance ahead of the 2024 election on Monday, arguing that it should be left up to the states. The former president also emphasized his support for exceptions of rape, incest and when the life of the mother is at risk, and endorsed in-vitro fertilization (IVF).

The Emerson College poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters in Florida from April 9 to April 10 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.

The campaigns for Biden, Mucarsel-Powell and Trump did not immediately respond to the DCNF’s requests for comment.

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