Two groups of voters will prove decisive in the upcoming 2024 elections in November — Generation Z and older members of the Baby Boomer and Silent Generations. Both of these groups have millions of swing voters, and the party that appeals to them the best will win in 2024.
Exit poll data from the last two general elections points to one obvious conclusion: without improving among both young and old voters, Republicans have an all-but-impossible path to regaining control of government.
From 2016 to 2020, former President Donald Trump gained six points with Millennials and three points with Gen Xers, according to Pew. Meanwhile, he lost one point with Baby Boomers and three points with the Silent Generation. Gen Z, which for the first time made up a sizable portion of the electorate at eight percent in 2020, went for Biden by about 20 points, more than any other generation.
In other words, while Trump improved with middle-aged Millennial and Generation X voters from 2016 to 2020, he lost ground with Boomer and Silent Generation voters and lost big with Gen Z voters – a trend he must reverse to retake the White House in 2024.
In 2024, Boomers will likely still be the largest single generational bloc of voters, with the highest voter registration rate and the highest turnout. But Gen Z represents a surging percentage of the electorate. During the most recent midterm cycle in 2022, Gen-Z for the first time made up the entire cohort of voters aged 18-24. Their overall share of the electorate increased to about 10%, and it will be higher in 2024.
What’s more, early indications suggest that these young voters are more politically active than their parents and grandparents. 28% of 18 to 24-year-olds cast ballots in 2022, compared to the 23% of Millennials who voted in 2006 and 24% of Gen Xers who voted in 1990, when each generation first made up the whole of that age group.
This should be setting off alarm bells in every Republican office around the country given that young voters, in addition to being more politically active, also appear more liberal than prior generations.
However, there are also indications that young voters are open to persuasion in their political development. Just 30% of Gen Zers say they align with Democrats, compared to 24% who align with Republicans and 28% who identify as independent, according to a report from the Walton Family Foundation.
Some polls also suggest that President Trump has closed a 20-point gap from 2020 and perhaps even leads Biden among voters under 30 – a stunning turnaround that would amount to a political disaster for Biden if proven to be true. Moreover, 38 percent of voters who have switched from Biden to Trump since 2020 are between the ages of 18 and 34, according to an April 16 Wall Street Journal report.
Although it has historically been the case that many young people initially vote liberal and then become more conservative with age, this shift should not be taken for granted. The conservative movement – and in particular older conservative candidates – must put in the work to appeal to these voters and address their concerns, chief among them the rising cost of living and housing un-affordability.
In order to make that happen, conservatives of every age must work together toward a common goal.
Oftentimes, it can be easy to sink into a generational blame game where older and younger conservatives attack one another instead of their common enemies. We’ve all heard the stereotypes that Boomers are out of touch, while Gen Z’ers are entitled and naïve
But both stereotypes fall short. Older Americans can remember when America was a stronger country. They are America’s reservoir of experience and institutional know-how. They’re the bedrocks of their churches, clubs and civic organizations that are the starting point for concerted political action.
Young Americans, meanwhile, have energy, talent and ambition. They have new ideas and have the most intuitive understanding of a changing world. They are the foot soldiers of any viable national reawakening.
If we’re going to save America from the Left’s agenda of open borders, race hatred, crime and American decline, we can’t simply fall back on generational warfare. We must recognize that Americans of all ages understand the country is in crisis, and that Americans of all ages can be won over to saving it.
We lead the two most prominent organizations in the country dedicated to serving these two cohorts of conservatives. The Association of Mature American Citizens (AMAC) is the leading conservative alternative to AARP for Americans over the age of 50. Turning Point USA, meanwhile, is the leading conservative organization giving a voice to high school and college conservatives.
It is in service of creating cross-generational engagement that AMAC and Turning Point are working in tandem to bring Americans of all ages and backgrounds together at The People’s Convention in Detroit this June 14-16. This event, hosted by Turning Point Action and sponsored by AMAC, will serve as the focal point of the conservative movement ahead of the Republican National Convention and will equip Americans of every generation with the tools, knowledge and collaborators necessary to make this November a historic conservative victory.
There are some voices in our political discourse today – even on the right – who would suggest that our country’s shifting generational composition has already doomed the conservative movement. But we believe that with the right outreach and relentless effort, American conservatism could be poised for a new golden age. We’re committed to achieving this ambitious goal, and we invite other conservative grassroots organizations to join our efforts in the critical months ahead.
Charlie Kirk is the Founder and CEO of Turning Point USA. Rebecca Weber is the CEO of the Association of Mature American Citizens.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller.
