Several key blue states that Democrats have comfortably won in past presidential election cycles are now becoming competitive for Republicans due to President Joe Biden’s handling of the economy and the southern border, experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
A Democrat has consistently won the presidential vote in Virginia and New Mexico since 2008, while New York and Minnesota have handed their electoral votes to Democrats every year since 1988 and 1976, respectively. Despite Democrats’ stranglehold over these states, recent polling indicates that former President Donald Trump has been closing the gap with Biden and turning these blue states purple, likely due to the president’s immigration and economic policies that have had devastating consequences for average Americans, according to experts who spoke to the DCNF. (RELATED: WSJ And NYT Polls Are Latest In String Of Surveys Showing Biden Losing Ground To Trump After Debate)
“Looking at what’s happened, especially over the last couple of weeks, but certainly over the last two months, we’ve seen the swing states move more reliably toward former President Trump, and we’ve seen the reach states like Virginia be on the table and possibly become swing states,” Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, told the DCNF.
DORAL, FLORIDA – JULY 09: Former U.S. President Donald Trump leaves after speaking at a campaign rally at the Trump National Doral Golf Club on July 09, 2024 in Doral, Florida. Trump continues to campaign across the country. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
Biden won Virginia in 2020 by over 10% of the vote, and former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton won the state in 2016 by 4.9%. A poll conducted in May by Roanoke College found Biden and Trump tied in a head-to-head matchup at 42% each, while another poll released in early June by Fox News also showed Trump and Biden were tied.
“He’s picking up a quarter of the black vote and half of the Hispanic vote,” John McLaughlin, a Trump campaign pollster and CEO of McLaughlin & Associates, told the DCNF. “He’s improved among suburban women and women in general. So some key pillars of the Democratic coalition are now in the Trump camp, and they’re seeing it in states where working middle-class voters are.”
New Mexico has also consistently voted for Democratic presidential nominees in recent years, with Biden beating Trump in 2020 by 10.8% and Clinton winning in 2016 by 8.3%.
Trump is now just one point behind Biden in New Mexico, according to internal findings released in June from the national political consulting firm 1892. Despite this seemingly narrowing gap, another poll conducted by Public Policy Polling still puts Trump seven points behind Biden. (RELATED: Dems Are Panicking That Their Deep Blue State Just Became A ‘Battleground’)
“When we’re looking at New Mexico, it’s obviously Hispanics that are causing a shift,” McLaughlin told the DCNF. “We’re talking about people who came here legally, and some of them have been here for generations. I mean, it’s a border state, and they don’t like the open border. They don’t like what’s been going on.”
McLaughlin told the DCNF that the reason Trump is polling so strongly in states like New Mexico compared to past elections is because Biden’s policies on immigration, crime and the economy have negatively affected residents’ quality of life.
“Especially with the sanctuary city stuff, the cashless bail, high crime, high taxes, you’ll definitely see a working middle-class revolt against Joe Biden and Kamala Harris and the Democrat policies,” McLaughlin told the DCNF.
In New York City alone, 180,000 asylum seekers have flowed through the city since April 2022. Many were met with generous social programs, which have ultimately burdened taxpayers, leading the city to implement budget cuts to make ends meet.
Democrats have historically dominated the vote in New York presidential elections, with Biden winning in 2020 by 23.1% and Clinton winning in 2016 by 21.3%.
Despite New York’s Democratic track record, Trump is now trailing Biden by eight points, according to a June poll from Siena College. A poll conducted by Emerson College in May put the former president even closer behind Biden, cutting the president’s lead down to just seven points. (RELATED: Trump’s Rosy Poll Numbers — And Coattails — Could Give New York Dems A Massive November Fright)
Current polling in New York represents a stark difference from June 2023, when Biden was leading by 22 points ahead of Trump, according to a Siena College poll.
“This is the first time in recent memory that immigration has really impacted the state of New York, and especially New York City,” McHenry told the DCNF. “They have brought the immigration issue to the doorsteps of a lot of Americans who never had to deal with it, where an open border is no longer just a theoretical construct.”
Jason Lewis, a former Republican representative to Minnesota’s second congressional district, told the DCNF that states like Minnesota have historically remained blue because of their “urban core” voters despite their significant rural population. The urban core refers to densely populated areas like Minneapolis, Saint Paul and Duluth that are typically democratic strongholds surrounded by more conservative rural areas.
“Those Democrats that will stay in the urban core will never vote for a Republican,” Lewis told the DCNF. “At best, they’ll stay home and write in [Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York]. But the Minnesota dynamic is different in that regard, because it’s one of those states, primarily a blue state, that is absolutely governed by an urban core.”
Lewis acknowledges Trump’s appeal among the rural working class and blue-collar voters, but he questions whether or not their support is enough to tip the scales. Minnesota has voted blue for nearly half a century, most recently with Biden beating the former president in 2020 by 7.2% and Clinton winning by 1.5%.
“In the outer part of the state of Minnesota, there’s no question that it’s red,” Lewis told the DCNF. “But is there enough?”
Polls in Minnesota have been largely mixed, with a June Mason Dixon Polling Strategy Poll showing the former President behind Biden by four points. Another June poll in the state shows Trump and Biden tied at 45%, according to Emerson College Polling/The Hill.
“There’s no question,” Lewis told the DCNF. “Trump is on a roll.”
All content created by the Daily Caller News Foundation, an independent and nonpartisan newswire service, is available without charge to any legitimate news publisher that can provide a large audience. All republished articles must include our logo, our reporter’s byline and their DCNF affiliation. For any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.
