Former President Donald Trump still maintains some crucial advantages in the 2024 race despite Vice President Kamala Harris’ polling surge, Democratic pollsters told Politico.
Harris’ polling advantage over Trump has come to fruition in the aftermath of President Joe Biden’s withdrawal in July, giving her a 1.5 point national advantage as she narrows her Republican counterpart’s swing-state lead, according to RealClearPolling. However, the same findings showed that voters generally favored Trump over Harris when evaluating the candidate’s respective characteristics, Politico reported. (RELATED: Harris Leads Trump In Key Swing State Demographic, But Huge Number Of Voters Are Still Up For Grabs: POLL)
“It’s still a very tough race, and that feels consistent with everything we know,” Margie Omero, a partner at the Democratic polling firm GBAO Strategies, told Politico.
TOPSHOT – Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gestures during a campaign rally at the North Carolina Aviation Museum & Hall of Fame in Asheboro, North Carolina, August 21, 2024. (Photo by Peter Zay / AFP) (Photo by PETER ZAY/AFP via Getty Images)
Harris and Trump are virtually tied across all seven key battlegrounds, according to a Tuesday poll from Navigator Research. However, more swing-state voters think Trump is “up for the job” compared to Harris. (RELATED: ‘Wide-Open Race’: Democrats Are Narrowing In On This Key Demographic, Poll Shows)
More swing-state voters think Trump is a strong leader and said he would bring about “needed change,” according to the poll. Trump is also favored by battleground voters who say he looks out for the middle class and think he has the right vision for America’s future.
Democratic strategists also warned against the possibility of errors, where polls underestimated Trump in both 2020 and in 2016.
Biden was polling 8.4 points ahead of Trump on Nov. 2, but only ended up winning by 4.4 points the following day. Similarly, in 2016, Trump was trailing former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton by 3.9 points, but the Republican outsider went on to win the election. (RELATED: ‘A Hard Sell’: Kamala Harris’s VP Pick May Not Appeal To Middle America The Way She Hoped)
“Every year, we’ve had different curveballs. This is a difficult industry,” John Anzalone, who was the lead pollster on Biden’s 2020 campaign, told Politico. “Something’s gonna happen in 2024. You and I, right now, don’t know what that is.”
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