TheDC Fantasy Outsider Andy Hayes: Week 11

Andy Hayes Contributor
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Welcome to the Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 11. Please feel free to contact us with any specific line-up questions or general thoughts on the rankings.


  1. Peyton Manning
  2. Aaron Rodgers
  3. Drew Brees
  4. Phillip Rivers
  5. Michael Vick
  6. Kyle Orton
  7. Tom Brady
  8. Troy Smith
  9. Jon Kitna
  10. Shaun Hill
  11. Eli Manning
  12. David Garrard
  13. Ben Roethlisberger
  14. Mark Sanchez
  15. Joe Flacco
  16. Carson Palmer
  17. Matt Cassel
  18. Vince Young
  19. Matt Ryan
  20. Sam Bradford
  21. Matt Schaub
  22. Ryan Fitzpatrick


  • Manning likes playing the Pats (5-1 in last 6 games facing Pats). Both powerful offenses should rack up yards against rather weak defenses.
  • I like Rodgers Sunday. I think he’ll get a fair amount of pressure against him, but I also expect the Pack’s running game to be mostly ineffective and Rodgers to be on a quiet mission to silence Favre talk perhaps one last time.
  • I like the Dallas/Detroit game for QBs. Both Hill and Kitna could be impressive.
  • Also expecting a shoot-out in San Diego. Both Den and SD are explosive and I can easily see the point total in this game drifting toward 60 or higher.
  • Don’t love Eli Manning without Steve Smith. Smith is a safe option for Eli and I think his absence last week actually affected Manning and the Giants. But Manning will have to throw this week as Philly will be charged up and ready to score some points.
  • I was tempted to put Garrard high up there considering his shocking #2 QB rating this year and recent good fantasy play. But Cleve’s defense is underrated and I can see this game turning into a brute running contest between Hillis and MJD.
  • From #14-20 – any one of these guys could go off and have bigger games than these rankings would suggest. With the possible exception of Ryan, all these guys have quality match-ups for chucking the ball.

Running Backs

  1. Chris Johnson
  2. Ray Rice
  3. LT
  4. Frank Gore
  5. Jamaal Charles
  6. Peyton Hillis
  7. Michael Turner
  8. Steven Jackson
  9. Adrian Peterson
  10. MJD
  11. Cedric Benson
  12. Ahmad Bradshaw
  13. Darren McFadden
  14. Mike Tolbert
  15. Rashard Mendenhall
  16. Arian Foster
  17. Knowshon Moreno
  18. Danny Woodhead
  19. LeGarrette Blount
  20. Fred Jackson
  21. LeSean McCoy
  22. Felix Jones
  23. Thomas Jones
  24. BenJarvus
  25. Shonn Greene
  26. Brandon Jackson
  27. Reggie Bush
  28. Keiland Williams
  29. Marshawn Lynch
  30. Tim Hightower


  • Chris Johnson is due for some ridiculousness. Even though I respected the Wash D in the first half of this season – after last week, I’m just not sure they get their swagger back – especially is Landy doesn’t play this week. I think Johnson goes crazy.
  • Same for Ray Rice. As a Rice owner, it has been incredibly frustrating watching Rice help Balt get to the opponents’ 20 only to give way to McGahee who continues to steal TDs. Very frustrating. But this is a game where Rice might be able to sneak in a TD or two from further out – Carolina has nothing.
  • I really like LT this week. Houston’s run D is bad. Lots of fantasy folks are talking up Sanchez this week but I think Houston will get a heavy dose of LT and Shonn Greene – both of whom should have quality fantasy weeks.
  • Others have Hillis ranked higher. He could have a huge game because he’s just so difficult to bring down. But defenses also know what’s coming – Cleve’s offense is easy to predict. If Colt McCoy can get a few early completions, it could really open things up for Hillis.
  • Turner and Jackson should have a run-fest in StL this weekend. Both should do well. (I know, Atlanta’s D appears to have been quite successful against the run so far this year – but keep in mind, their pass D has been so weak that many teams have figured that there’s little point in running when the passing lanes are wide open. They will be tested by Steven Jackson at home.)
  • Darren McFadden is a tough one. I own him as well and it has been really difficult to decide if he can get it done against a normally game Pitt run D. Casting aside last week’s drubbing by NE as an aberration, Pitt’s D is really tough against the run and Oak doesn’t really have the passing game to throw Pitt’s D off the scent. Still, if you’re debating whether or not to start McFadden, I’ve concluded you simply can’t sit a guy who has been so dominant. Oak is a team that is surging at the moment and they are surging mostly because of major confidence in McFadden. And his own confidence is skyrocketing – you can tell by how he carries himself on the field. And, importantly, McFadden is the kind of guy who can run for an 80 yard TD on any given play. There, done rationalizing.
  • Both Tolbert and Mendenhall could have bigger games than their rankings indicate. While I expect Roethlisberger and Rivers to both be very active Sunday, Tolbert and Mendenhall will get opportunities to score.
  • This is one of those maturity games for LeGarrette Blount. TB is right in the thick of the NFC playoff race and they have looked good recently in part because of Blount. This is an important game where many are projecting limited contributions from Blount. Not sure that will happen because he’s very, very good. SF’s D will key on stopping Blount for sure, but he may still be active catching passes and around the goal-line.
  • Brandon Jackson is a tough one. He seems to be growing slightly more comfortable with each game. And on turf, he can make folks miss a better than he can on grass. But the knock on Jackson in an important game like this – is that he’s terrified of fumbling. Usually a team wants the RB to be aware of it – but not paralyzed by it. Jackson does the 2 armed carry thing a bit too much in big games and it seriously inhibits his ability to break off longer runs.

Wide Receivers

  1. Dez Bryant
  2. Marques Colston
  3. Reggie Wayne
  4. Terrell Owens
  5. Calvin Johnson
  6. Roddy White
  7. Miles Austin
  8. Michael Crabtree
  9. Mike Wallace
  10. Brandon Lloyd
  11. Percy Harvin
  12. Jeremy Maclin
  13. Greg Jennings
  14. Andre Johnson
  15. Anquan Boldin
  16. Mario Manningham
  17. Larry Fitzgerald
  18. Wes Welker
  19. James Jones
  20. Mike Williams (TB)
  21. Mike Williams (Sea)
  22. Santonio Holmes
  23. Steve Johnson
  24. Randy Moss
  25. Malcom Floyd
  26. Braylon Edwards
  27. Nate Washington
  28. Mike Thomas
  29. Chad Ochocinco
  30. Pierre Garcon


  • Bryant is really good. Like most teams, Detroit will have to focus defensively on Miles Austin because of his tremendous route-running and the threat he poses after the catch – leaving a lesser d-back to cover Bryant. The guy has already proven as a rookie that he just makes plays.
  • The next few guys ranked are the usual suspects (with the possible exception of Colston, whom I put up there because I expect Brees and Payton to really focus on going back to what works…namely getting the ball to playmakers like Colston and Bush).
  • Crabtree is up there because he’s been getting it done lately. As Troy Smith gets a better handle on the offense, I think it’s safe to assume Crabtree, Vernon Davis and Frank Gore will see more and more touches because O-Coordinator has made it very evident his system revolves around getting the ball in the hands of the playmakers. Crabtree could be a valuable guy to have in the playoff run here.
  • I was tempted to put Jennings in the top 5. While most Packer fans remain nervous about the showdown this weekend with Minnesota and Favre, I’ve suddenly begun to think that the thing nobody’s talking about with respect to this game is the Packer’s offense. They might just go nuts. The MN defense has been suspect all year and I think there is one guy who very quietly wants to have a huge, huge game: Aaron Rodgers. And Jennings (and James Jones) would be the primary beneficiaries.
  • Randy Moss could get going this week. No doubt Tenn will want to get him more involved going forward. Considering they are playing a recently trod-upon Wash team, it might be a good week to experiment.
  • Was going to put Mike Sims-Walker up in there pretty high, then I remembered that he tends to be super hot or super cold. This could be a cold week (and he’s also banged up a bit), so I elected to go with his fellow WR Mike Thomas.

Tight Ends:

  1. Vernon Davis
  2. Jacob Tamme
  3. Benjamin Watson
  4. Todd Heap
  5. Zach Miller
  6. Jason Witten
  7. Marcedes Lewis
  8. Brandon Pettigrew
  9. Aaron Hernandez
  10. Visanthe Shiancoe
  11. Heath Miller
  12. Chris Cooley
  13. Dustin Keller
  14. Kellen Winslow
  15. Brent Celek


  • Davis is due for a monster week. Though TB is good, Davis, Gore and Crabtree will get plenty of looks.
  • I like Benjamin Watson and so does Colt McCoy. It’s nice for a rookie QB to have a quality veteran TE who knows how to sit in a zone and create space for himself.
  • If McFadden is covered, it’s likely Campbell’s #2 read will most often be Zach Miller. In fact, all Pitt has to do is cover these 2 guys and they win easily – the challenge of course is that both McFadden and Miller aren’t easy to cover.
  • I think Dallas and Detroit could both look to their respective TEs a fair amount on Sunday in what could be a high scoring game.
  • Packers always struggle with TEs and Sunday should be no different. Though for some reason, I can see a sizable collision between Shiancoe and Green Bay LB Desmond Bishop over the middle (watch out for this guy in the coming years).
  • Dustin Keller might pick it back up this week and I seriously considered putting him up a few slots – but I can see so much of the game being controlled by the NYJ on the ground that passing may become an afterthought.
  • Nope – no Rob Gronkowski on the list. Gronkowski is part of the ingenious Belichick offensive system that features different players each week. Going forward, it will simply be a guessing game with him w/respect to whether or not he’ll contribute much. His fellow TE may have a bigger week.

Defense/Special Teams:

  1. Titans
  2. Chiefs
  3. Ravens
  4. Saints
  5. Steelers
  6. 49ers
  7. Cowboys
  8. Jets
  9. Falcons
  10. Eagles
  11. Packers
  12. Raiders


  • Some FF rankers have the Packers listed #1. Disagree there. As much as the Packers’ D has come into its own recently, Peterson and Harvin on turf is just not a good situation for any defense. Yes, Favre will likely puke up a few more league-leading turnovers, but the Vikes will get some yards and points.
  • Tenn has a good chance to shut down an uninspiring Wash offense. Keiland Williams won’t be the answer and Courtland Finnegan will shut down Santana Moss. Cooley may do some damage, but I don’t see this one going well for Wash.
  • The Chiefs could be very good Sunday. They played poorly last week but that was one of those fluky games where Pitt’s D probably would have been lit up the same way – sometimes teams are just on fire and nobody can stop them. Arizona’s offense is far less scary than Denver’s.
  • Considered putting SF’s D toward the top. As much as I do think TB isn’t bad at all, I just think SF is a really hot team that is in the process of building momentum for a serious playoff run. But I didn’t put them up top for fear that Blount might get some quality yards in the end (and that TB may get some garbage time yards – if the game goes as I expect it will with SF winning comfortably).
  • Struggled putting the Jets where I did because part of me thinks the Jets could totally shut down Houston (and be #1) and part of me thinks they could give up massive yards if Houston’s offense gets clicking (and be #25). I lean toward the former option though (which is how I settled on #8) because I think Matt Schaub may simply not have the mental strength to wage war on the Jets in NY.
  • The Raiders’ D has quietly put together a pretty decent season. Pitt might experience more frustration with them than most are anticipating.


  1. Rob Bironas
  2. Garrett Hartley
  3. David Akers
  4. Janikowski
  5. Matt Bryant
  6. Ryan Longwell
  7. Phil Dawson
  8. Mason Crosby
  9. Ryan Succop
  10. Josh Scobee


  • Tenn should win comfortably this weekend – but if their offense does sputter a bit, they’ll turn to FGs from Bironas. He’ll get his points.
  • Hartley could be making a quiet comeback after the chaos of the beginning of the season. NO should put up points Sunday.
  • I like Matt Bryant this week. If Atlanta really gets the offense moving, he’ll be busy. But even if the offense is inconsistent, he should have opportunities for some FGs in what may end up being a close game.
  • Phil Dawson is a guy who may continue to be more active this year. He’s been decent recently fantasy-wise as the Cleve has been able to move the ball far better than people thought under Colt McCoy. In this game, I can see Dawson and Scobee locked in a FG battle as both teams pound it out on the ground.