Republican nominee Donald Trump is polling just one percentage point behind Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in Michigan, according to a new poll from Strategic National.
The Michigan statewide poll revealed essentially a dead heat in a state that has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. Clinton received 45 percent support, while Trump received 44 percent. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson received 5 percent support, while Green party nominee Jill Stein received 2 percent. Two percent of the respondents said that they were supporting someone else, and another two percent were still undecided.
The survey, conducted by Strategic National, a Republican leaning consulting firm based in Michigan, contacted 500 likely voters in the State of Michigan on Oct. 29 and the 30. The survey reported that 41 percent of the respondents were affiliated with the Democratic Party, while 36 percent affiliated with the GOP.
The latest news comes as the Trump campaign makes a major push for the Mitten State, going against the longstanding media narrative that the state was unattainable for a Republican Presidential nominee.
Michigan is considered the birthplace of “Reagan Democrats” after working-class whites began to abandon the Democratic Party in Michigan starting in the mid-1960s. They rejected the anti-war left and rising liberal wing, and supported Republicans including former President Ronald Reagan and Michigan’s own former President Gerald Ford. The political winds shifted back to the Democrats in 1992, and voters haven’t supported a GOP nominee since.
While Michigan hasn’t voted for a Republican president since President George H. W. Bush in 1988, the state has wide swaths of conservative areas and a well-established Republican state-party apparatus. Michigan’s governor and both legislative chambers are controlled by Republicans, and the state’s congressional delegation is made up of nine Republicans and five Democrats.
Concerns that Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s campaign may not inspire the same turnout as President Barack Obama’s two elections may offer Trump an opportunity to win the Great Lakes state if he energizes the base.
All three of Trump’s children are planning visits to the state between Wednesday and Friday, as is vice-presidential nominee Mike Pence.
Clinton will try to mobilize her base by visiting the state Friday. Both candidates have made six-figure advertising purchases in the state at the eleventh hour.
Clinton enjoyed as much as a 13-point advantage over Trump in Michigan just a few weeks ago. The FBI’s decision to reopen an investigation into Clinton’s private email use, the ongoing WikiLeaks dumps, and news that Obamacare premiums are expected to increase as much as 20 percent in Michigan has provided Trump with new life.
The poll was conducted through landlines, using Interactive Voice Response and the margin of error for the poll is 4.4 percent.
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