The final IBD/TIPP poll released Tuesday morning shows former Vice President Joe Biden holding a modest lead over President Donald Trump in the national vote.
Of the seven national polls released Monday, six had Biden leading by margins ranging from 7 percent to 11 percent. One poll by Rasmussen Reports had Biden leading by only 1 percent. Raghavan Mayur, president and founder of TechnoMetrica, which runs the IBD/TIPP poll, said the 4 percent Biden lead in his poll leaves no room for certainty on who wins the electoral college. (RELATED: The Battleground Races Are The Tightest They’ve Been In The Past Two Months, Polling Average Shows)
“With the margin we are showing, Trump can still win,” Mayur told the Daily Caller. “Most of the lead Biden has is coming from blue states.”
The IBD/TIPP poll has predicted the winner of the past four presidential elections. It was one of only two polls to have Trump win in 2016, predicting him to win the popular vote by 2 percent.
#Final National IBD/TIPP Poll (LV, 10/29-11/2):
Biden 50% (+4)
Biden 51% (+5)
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 3, 2020
Mayur told the Daily Caller that Trump would have to perform “spectacularly” in battleground states to win the electoral college. The key to this, he said, is a strong performance among African American and Hispanic voters. The IBD/TIPP poll released Tuesday shows Trump with a slight lead over Biden among Hispanics and doubling his 2016 support among African Americans to 16 percent.
The key to a Biden lead, according to Mayur, is his performance with senior citizens, independents, and suburban voters. Trump won these demographics in 2016 but is now losing them to Biden in the IBD/TIPP poll. (RELATED: Editor Daily Rundown: It’s Election Day — What Are The Biggest Races, When Can We Expect Results)
The IBD/TIPP poll has a margin of error of 3.2 percent.
All right, folks, here’s our last PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION UPDATE of 2020 to accompany our final forecast. https://t.co/F47OcVHqNK
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2020