- Virginia Democrats flipped the state House and held the state Senate in the contentious legislative elections Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin had hoped would give him a GOP trifecta.
- Youngkin had been campaigning and fundraising for the Republican candidates across the state, hoping to hold the state house and flip the state Senate, which many thought could be a precursor for a late presidential launch for 2024.
- “Anything is possible in politics, but the likelihood of him doing it and being successful has diminished. The shine on his star isn’t as shiny after yesterday,” Jeff Frederick, former chairman of the Virginia GOP and former Virginia state delegate, told the Daily Caller News Foundation of a potential presidential bid from Youngkin.
Republican losses in Tuesday’s Virginia legislative elections likely ended any chance that GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin will run for president in 2024, several state political operatives told the Daily Caller News Foundation, but might not be a hindrance for his future political ambitions.
Youngkin, through his state political action committee (PAC) Spirit of Virginia, had been campaigning and fundraising across the state for Republican candidates with the hope that the GOP could hold the state House and flip the state Senate. After speculation that he could make a late entry in the Republican primary field, the political operatives argued that such a move is likely off the table now that that Democrats won back the House of Delegates and held the Virginia Senate, kneecapping his administration’s conservative agenda.
“It’s highly unlikely,” Chris Saxman, executive director of Virginia FREE and former state delegate, told the DCNF of the possibility for Youngkin to run for president after the GOP’s losses. “It was a tough sell to begin with because the timeframe, and the substantial lead of the former president, now it’s a virtual impossibility to make the case. [Though] it looks like he picked up a seat in the Senate, flipping the House is a big loss.”
Democrats were projected to win a minimum of 50 seats in the state House and 20 in the state Senate after campaign cash funneled in from party leaders nationally, including from the Democratic National Committee, at President Joe Biden’s directive, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s nonprofit.
Despite Youngkin insisting he was solely focused on Virginia’s legislative elections on several occasions when asked about potential presidential aspirations in 2024, GOP megadonors had been courting the governor to run, citing their distaste for former President Donald Trump, who’s leading the crowded field by roughly 45 points, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ struggle to gain momentum in the primary.
“I’ve said over and again how humbling it is to even talk about my name in this context,” Youngkin told Fox Business’ Maria Bartiromo in late August. “But I am so focused on Virginia and elections this year to make sure that we deliver, we’ve got a giant agenda, and therefore I’m campaigning across Virginia for our House and Senate delegates and senators. I’m not in Iowa, I’m not in South Carolina and New Hampshire, we’re focusing on Virginia.”
After Youngkin decided in early May that he would not seek the presidency “this year,” Axios reported on May 22 that the governor was “reconsidering a bid” that could launch after the November elections. (RELATED: Here’s Why Virginia Republicans Think Glenn Youngkin Could Make Late Entry Into 2024 GOP Primary Field)
CLEARANCE SALE: all ‘Youngkin for President 2024’ merchandise. A free MyPillow comes with all purchases over $1. NO RETURNS.
— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) November 8, 2023
Kyle Kondik, nonpartisan polling analyst and managing editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, believes a late entry into the presidential race was always unlikely.
“I think the idea that Youngkin could ride a victory in state legislative races into a credible White House bid was always far-fetched. I just don’t think rank and file Republican voters in other states would care about that,” Kondik told the DCNF. “If Youngkin would have been or would be a strong GOP candidate, it would be because he performed well as a candidate and there was a void in the race. As of now there is not a void in the race, as Trump is dominating.”
The GOP’s losses will also hinder the Youngkin administration’s ability to pass key legislative priorities, like school choice, a 15-week abortion ban and other conservative items. When Youngkin won the governor’s mansion in 2021 against former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe by nearly 2 points, he disrupted years of Democratic control in Virginia, hoping to continue the momentum in the state legislature Tuesday evening.
“Democrats also are going to block anything significant that Youngkin wants to do. As strange as this is to say, that could actually be good for Youngkin’s standing in Virginia – passing controversial conservative legislation could have driven down his popularity (which remains good) in a left-leaning state,” Kondik said.
Jeff Frederick, former chairman of the Virginia GOP and former Virginia state delegate, also threw cold water on the potential for Youngkin to make a late entry into the GOP primary field following the Tuesday’s projections, adding that “the bulk of his agenda is dead.”
“Anything is possible in politics, but the likelihood of him doing it and being successful has diminished. The shine on his star isn’t as shiny after yesterday,” Frederick said of a potential presidential bid from Youngkin. “He’ll have to retool his agenda to find things both he and [Democratic] majorities want to do. They’ll likewise have to do the same given they won’t be able to override his veto. Likely both sides will want to have some accomplishments, so there will be some progress on things, but likely not on the marquee issues he’s been talking about (and the marquee issues the [Democrats] have been talking about).”
Youngkin could also run for Senate once his term is up in 2026, the same year as Democratic Sen. Mark Warner is up for reelection, as Virginia governors can’t serve consecutive terms.
Saxman doesn’t believe the GOP’s legislative losses will play any role in hindering a hypothetical Senate bid for Youngkin, adding that “he has a very bright future.” Frederick argued the newfound Democratic control of the state legislature could even help such a campaign, allowing Youngkin to appeal to a larger electorate by proving that he has the ability to work across the aisle.
“If he did win control of both houses, then what would have happened is the General Assembly would have started passing a lot of things that frankly, I would have loved, but maybe not all those things would have been particularly appealing to some people in some of the rich areas,” said Frederick. “And while he would have been a darling of the conservative party, and had all kinds of great accomplishments, like, you know, similar to what you might be able to say about Ron DeSantis in Florida, those things might not have played well statewide when he’s trying to win another office.”
Spirit of Virginia PAC announced in early October that it had raised $7.45 million during the third fundraising quarter, bringing its total to $15.5 million since March. The DNC dropped $1.5 million into the race, the DLCC gave $2 million and Pritzker’s Think Big America contributed $250,000.
Youngkin’s political team has been largely silent following the election results, except for Spirit of Virginia PAC Chairman Dave Rexrode.
“We are still monitoring a couple key races and will fully assess where things stand in the morning,” Rexrode wrote in a tweet Tuesday evening. “We had hoped for a stronger outcome this evening but are proud of the effort all of our candidates put in to these extremely competitive districts.”
Youngkin’s political team did not respond to the DCNF’s request for comment.
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