Former President Donald Trump is currently polling better against President Joe Biden than he has at any time in the last two presidential election cycles as the two men head toward a likely rematch in November.
Trump is ahead of Biden by 4.3 points in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average, which is his largest lead this cycle against the president. The lead is also far above Trump’s record for the last two cycles, where he never led Biden in the RCP average and was only ahead of Hillary Clinton during two separate periods in 2016, never surpassing a 1.1-point margin.
Biden hasn’t led in the RCP average since early September. (RELATED: Just How Good Are The Polls For Donald Trump?)
Trump has already led Biden in over 100 polls for the 2024 cycle, according to the RCP’s survey compilation. The former president only beat Biden in five 2020 polls all cycle, and was winning against Clinton in a total of 29 surveys for the 2016 election.
“The Democrats are scared as hell because President Trump is in the strongest position ever to beat Crooked Joe Biden in November,” Karoline Leavitt, national spokeswoman for the Trump campaign, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “As Biden struggles to maintain support amongst his own base, President Trump’s base is growing and more energized than ever before, and he is winning over Independent voters by double digits.”
“Americans are suffering from Joe Biden’s incompetent policies, disgusted by his corruption, and rightfully worried about his cognitive inability to speak or walk up a flight of stairs. Biden’s days in the White House are numbered, and President Trump will soon return to Make America Great Again,” Leavitt added.
A Messenger/Harris poll released on Wednesday found that Trump was leading Biden 48% to 41%, with 11% remaining undecided. The poll indicates a 3-point jump in support for the former president since its previous survey was conducted earlier in January.
At this point in the previous two cycles, Biden was leading Trump by 4.3 points and Clinton was ahead by 2.7 points, according to the RCP average.
SUPERIOR, WISCONSIN – JANUARY 25: U.S. President Joe Biden speaks about funding for the I-535 Blatnik Bridge at Earth Rider Brewery. (Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)
In crucial battleground states like Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina, Trump is ahead of Biden by several points in the RCP averages. The two are tied in Wisconsin, and Biden is narrowly leading in Pennsylvania by 0.6 points.
In both cycles, the former president won North Carolina and lost Nevada. The remaining five swing states Trump won in 2016 and lost in 2020.
“I think former President Trump’s enduring lead at this point shows that he’s running against the weakest opponent he’s faced: Joe Biden with a record,” Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
“President Biden has the second-worst approval average in his third year in office (39.8 percent) with only [Jimmy] Carter faring worse (37.4 percent). Carter went on to only win 41 percent in the general election against [Ronald] Reagan, with former Republican John Anderson taking another 6.6 percent to Reagan’s 50.7 percent,” McHenry added.
Trump secured large victories in the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, receiving 51% and 54.3% support, respectively. Biden won the New Hampshire primary as a write-in candidate after declining to participate in the state due to the Democratic National Committee’s new calendar that moved South Carolina first.
The former president is the only major Republican candidate competing for delegates in Nevada, as former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is participating in the state-run primary on Feb. 6 rather than the party caucus two days later.
South Carolina’s primary is up next on Feb. 24, where Haley is hoping to shore up support from her home state after being twice elected as governor. While Haley came in third and second place in Iowa and New Hampshire, respectively, she has vowed that the “race is far from over.”
The RCP average for a 2024 South Carolina primary, based on polls conducted between Oct. 18 and Jan. 3, suggests Trump is beating Haley 52% to 21.8%.
Biden’s campaign did not immediately respond to the DCNF’s request for comment.
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