CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said on Friday that former President Donald Trump’s rally in the Bronx is a negative indicator for President Joe Biden’s reelection chances.
Trump on Thursday held a rally in the Bronx, New York, which is a largely Democratic area, with thousands of people attending. Enten on “CNN News Central” said this rally is representative of Biden losing Latino voters and Trump gaining them, which will make it more challenging for the president to secure reelection. (RELATED: Bronx Voters Tell Fox News Host Trump’s Rally Will ‘Bring Light To The Hood’)
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“Look at the Crotona Park area, right? The Crotona Park precinct where that rally was held yesterday,” Enten told host Kate Bolduan. “It’s a majority Hispanic precinct, and I want you to take a look essentially at the election results over the last few cycles and what you would see there is essentially see, that look, this is a very Democratic precinct, right? But look at the margin trend line here.”
“You see Obama 94%, Obama 96%, Clinton 92%, Biden won it, but by only 69 points,” Enten continued. “Why is that important? Because look at that. That’s 23 percentage points less than Hillary Clinton won it by. This is a sign of the Hispanic movement that we saw last cycle, right, where we saw, although Hispanics still favored the Democratic candidate in Joe Biden, they were less likely to favor him than they did Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama both times. And it’s not just there that happened. We saw it in Hispanic precincts and counties across the country from southeast Florida, southern Texas, even in the Los Angeles area.”
A recent New York Times/Siena College poll found that Trump has narrowed the margin with Biden among black and Hispanic Americans across the six swing states. Biden is leading Trump 70% to 18% among black voters and 47% to 42% among Hispanic voters.
“We saw a trend among Hispanic voters from 2016 to 2020, where they became less Democratic,” Enten said. “Look at the trend that we’re seeing right now in the polling, right? So if you look back at Hispanic voters at this point in the 2020 cycle, Joe Biden had a 25 point lead. Look at where that lead is today. It’s just seven points. Donald Trump right now at 44%, if that held, would be the best performance for a Republican candidate among Hispanic voters since George W. Bush back in 2004.”
“And this is part of a larger trend line, Kate, that we’re seeing among nonwhite voters, we see among black voters as well,” he added. “We’ve discussed that on this program before, whereby they’re much more favorable to Donald Trump than they were four years ago. And of course, Donald Trump did better amongst both of those groups in 2020 versus how he did in 2016.”
Moreover, Trump’s lead against Biden expands among likely voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina when independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates are included on the ballot, according to a Thursday poll by The Cook Political Report/BSG/GS Strategy Group.
“If you look nationally, Hispanics make up about 10% of likely voters,” Enten said. “All right, so where do they make up a lower percentage of that? They make him up in the Great Lake battleground states … 3% in Michigan, 2% of Pennsylvania, 4% in Wisconsin. We have been harping over and over and over again that Joe Biden’s best path to reelection is to run through the Great Lakes and polling and results that we saw like in Crotona Park in 2020 and the polling that we see in 2024 just reinforce that.”
“He is going to probably do best where white voters make up the vast majority of voters,” the reporter explained. “He still has a path to 270 at this point, even though he’s doing poorly, more poorly amongst Hispanics and black voters than he did four years ago because his numbers seem to be holding with white voters who make up the vast majority of voters in those Great Lake battleground states.”
Pollster Nate Silver on Thursday urged Biden to contemplate dropping out of the presidential race if it appears in August that he is “still struggling” to secure reelection by that point, which is when the Democratic National Convention is scheduled to take place in Chicago.
“If Biden is still struggling in August he needs to consider stepping aside,” Silver posted on X. “It’s not a great situation for Ds either way, but you have to do due diligence on the question. It’s an important election, obviously. It shouldn’t be taboo to talk about.”
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