When President Barack Obama burst onto the scene, he captured the attention of younger generations looking for the “Hope and Change” his campaign was promising. But after 16 years of introspection, the politics of Gen X and Millennial voters appear to be vastly different.
Young voters have been part of the conglomerate who turn out to rally, stump, and vote for Democrats until now. The June 2024 New York Times/Siena College poll shows former President Donald Trump leading among the same Millennial and Gen X voters who helped elect Obama. Trump is winning Millennials (now 34-44) by 5 points and Gen Xers (now 45-54) by 19 points.
2008 18-29 year olds, who are 34-45 today, voted for Obama by 33 points.
In the NYT poll, 30-44 year olds are Trump +5.
From this to MAGA in just 16 years. https://t.co/QqZzSa1KAl pic.twitter.com/B0gG4kZayt
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) June 27, 2024
When Obama beat deceased Republican Sen. John McCain in 2008, he carried Millennials (aged 18-29 in 2008) by 34 points and Gen X (aged 30-44 in 2008) by 6 points. Young voters, along with the large turnout of Black and minority voters, were critical to his presidential victory. These numbers didn’t change much when Obama won reelection against UT Sen. Mitt Romney, probably because Romney is as exciting a candidate as a wet paper bag. (ROOKE: Major Political Realignment Is Happening Inside The Democratic Party)
However, Trump is not a Romney Republican by any stretch, and voters who have experienced four years of what it’s like to live in President Biden’s America are looking again for “hope and change,” as the poll shows a majority of these voters see the country as going in the wrong direction.
