The path to victory for former President Donald Trump and the Republican Party runs through the 2,585 Catholic parishes in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
These six states are the epicenter of the 2024 election. Though polling is fluid, each state — with the exception of Montana — remains a tossup in the presidential race. Of the seven closely contested races for the U.S. Senate, six are within these states. They also host six of the twenty-two tossup battles for control of the U.S. House. (RELATED: KEITH PEKAU: Tim Walz’s Record Can’t Be Kicked Under The Rug)
Across these states, Catholics are the single largest denomination. They include over 5 million finicky, sometimes unpredictable Catholic registered voters. And by their sheer size, geography and fluctuation, the Catholic voting blocs in these states are likely to decide partisan control of Washington.
In the recent decades, Catholic voters, once central to the Democratic Party coalition, have developed into the ultimate swing vote in federal elections. From the Democratic pinnacle of 1960, when about 80% of Catholic voters across the nation pulled the lever for fellow Catholic John F. Kennedy, many recent federal elections — with both Republican and Democrat victories — have been decided by the size of the Catholic swing vote.
In 2016, Trump captured the national Catholic vote by a 52%-45% margin as tens of thousands of former Obama voters voted Republican in key states. Trump’s narrow, surprising Electoral College victory over Hillary Clinton, particularly in the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, would not have been possible without the swing of Catholic voters to his camp.
But in 2020, with self-identified Catholic Joe Biden on the ballot, Trump lost his Catholic edge. The national Catholic vote narrowly split between Biden and Trump. The heavily Catholic states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan swung back to the Democrat column, and the growing Hispanic population in Arizona helped deliver that state to Biden as well. Together, this Catholic swing away from Trump was key to the Biden-Harris victory and Democrat congressional majorities.
With the control of both chambers of Congress and the presidency in the balance, Republicans must do what they have never done before – reach out to Catholics in an unprecedented, whole-hearted effort. Unfortunately, they are already behind the eight ball. Their efforts in 2020 began with the launch of Catholics for Trump 215 days before that election, but as I write this, we sit only 70 days out from the election. And in just 20 days, the first mail-in ballots in these key states will start being released to voters. Fortunately, however, the Republicans have a critical weapon at their disposal – Sen. J.D. Vance. Although other Catholics have been nominated for vice president, Vance – if successful – would be the first Republican Catholic vice president in our nation’s history.
Catholic voters share most, if not all, of the so-called “gaps” of the rest of the American voting public, particularly that of race, church attendance, and age. White, older, church-attending Catholics should be prime targets for Republicans — and every Sunday, there are about one million Catholics sitting in the pews of the 2,585 parishes in this sextet of states. With their extreme policies, and the most radical anti-Catholic ticket in history, Democrats certainly can’t target these voters — but Vance and other Republicans could and should.
And the Democrats have provided the opening. For weeks now, Vice President Kamala Harris, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and their compliant media have been attacking Vance for his ‘weird’ Catholic beliefs. Not only that, Harris has a long anti-Catholic history, epitomized by her attacks on three separate judicial nominees (Brian Buescher, Paul Matey and Peter Phipps), specifically because she believes their Catholic faith precluded them from serving as federal judges.
By leaning in on and highlighting his authentic Catholic conversion in response to this vitriol, Vance can give a green light to swinging Catholic voters to vote for Trump and other Republican candidates.
And this has been successfully carried out before in a presidential race – but by Democrats. In that 1960 election, facing an avalanche of anti-Catholic propaganda, JFK was able to ignite a massive Catholic turnout that he rode to the White House. Successfully flipping the Catholic script on Democrats is entirely possible and workable, especially in this abbreviated campaign season.
Not since 1960 have faithful Catholics been in such a powerful position to affect an election cycle in America. The script is clear.
For success this fall, Republicans need a massive turnout of faithful Catholics in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — and J.D. Vance should play the lead role.
The Honorable Tim Huelskamp, Ph.D. is a member of the 2024 RNC Platform Committee and represented the 1st District Kansas in Congress for 6 years.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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