As former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum battled it out into the wee hours of Wednesday morning for a win in the Iowa caucuses, New Hampshire primary, observers said while Santorum’s Hawkeye State results would give him a boost as the conservative alternative to Romney, it might be not enough to overcome Romney’s formidable Granite State lead.
New Hampshire voters are said sometimes to take pride in not following the whims of Iowans. Yet, in a game where momentum is everything, it’s foolish to pretend that Tuesday’s photo finish wouldn’t matter at all. And though Romney retains a large lead in the latest Granite State polling, Santorum is now someone to watch.
“Romney remains the front-runner and the overwhelming favorite to win the Republican nomination,” said Republican political consultant Mike Dennehy. “Santorum is now the conservative alternative to Romney.”
Charlie Arlinghaus, president of the Josiah Bartlett Center, gave the nod to Santorum before the results came in, and suggested it could help him in the first-in-the-nation primary next week.
“The big winner of the night is Rick Santorum,” he emailed TheDC. “This will be an extraordinary boost to his campaign in New Hampshire. While Mitt Romney and Texas Rep. Ron Paul both occupy distinct real estate, the other four have been fighting to solidify their combined vote and be the non-Romney, non-Paul candidate. Santorum has staked his claim with an exclamation point.”
Trey Grayson, director of the Harvard University Institute of Politics, was less certain.
“This will give him a boost in fundraising and earned media,” said Grayson of Santorum, but said it was, “Not enough to win New Hampshire, but he will certainly do better than he is polling right now.”
Indeed, Santorum saw a slight boost in a CNN New Hampshire flash poll of people watching the Iowa caucuses coverage. They found him at 10 percent, up from 5 percent in late December. That still leaves him far behind Romney, however, who stayed steady at 47 percent. Paul was constant at 17 percent, as was former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, at 13 percent. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich saw a dip, from 12 percent to 9 percent.
But “the 64 thousand dollar question,” as Dennehy put it, “is will he have the financial resources and the ground game to coalesce conservative voters in New Hampshire and the primary states to follow. Time will tell if he can catapult himself 20 points in seven days to come close to Romney, but one thing is certain in this 2012 Republican primary for president —anything can happen.”
Dennehy called Santorum’s organization in New Hampshire “good and very credible,” but noted that “it is third behind Romney and Paul. So they have some challenges.”
Fergus Cullen, former chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party, was less generous.
“Rick Santorum campaigned very hard in New Hampshire in the first six months of the year and has almost nothing to show for it,” he emailed. “He has very little organization here, though to his credit he does have a significant handful of state legislative endorsements — impressive for a candidate who’s basically been at 1 percent in New Hampshire all along. These are conviction endorsements. Looking at the list, though, they are mostly hard-core pro-lifers, that is, people who are involved in politics principally due to the life issue. That is still a small number of New Hampshire voters.”
“Romney still has to be considered a winner, because even with this Iowa boost, Santorum will still have a hard time putting together a campaign with the organization and financing necessary to win a national campaign,” echoed Grayson. “Romney is still best positioned to win the nomination and tonight didn’t change that.”
As for the other contenders, Rep. Michele Bachmann exited the race Wednesday morning, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry, after saying he would return to Texas to re-evaluate his campaign, tweeted Wednesday morning that he would be heading straight to South Carolina, skipping New Hampshire.
Third place finisher Ron Paul “had a good night, which should energize the most dedicated core group any candidate has,” Arlinghaus said. But Grayson found his performance less impressive.
“This likely represents his high water mark,” Grayson said. “He will continue to pull 15-20 percent, but can’t get above that.”
For Gingrich — a brief front-runner until his support began to erode in the past couple of weeks — Arlinghaus said the effect on his campaign was unclear.
“Beating out Perry and Bachmann is small consolation to the creation of a Santorum wave that may drown Newt,” Arlinghaus emailed. Gingrich “must renew his campaign in New Hampshire, where he has the most influential paper — a significant polling advantage over Santorum. But good news in New Hampshire may be hard to come by with Romney and Paul maintaining their positions. Third place in New Hampshire doesn’t make you the comeback kid, it merely lets you limp on.”
If Gingrich’s descent continues, Cullen suggested, Huntsman could take third place.
That Romney ultimately eked out the win, observers agreed, was of little consequence.
“At this point, the race is so close, it doesn’t matter much who technically won. The delegates and momentum are about the same either way,” said Arlinghaus.
