Political statistician Nate Silver doubled the chances of Republican nominee Donald Trump clenching the White House on Nov. 8, according to a Thursday analysis posted on 538.
Trump’s chances of winning are now 34.9 percent, according to the polls-plus forecast, earning 34.2 percent in the poll-only forecast. Clinton still had the higher percentage, with 65 percent and 65.8 percent respectively.
Trump’s chances of winning the election were only 16.7 percent on Oct. 26, just eight days ago. Trump has dominated the polls since then, gaining a staggering eight points in the ABC News/Washington Post daily tracking poll. Trump earned 38 percent on the Oct. 22 iteration of the poll, and rose to 46 percent as of Wednesday.
Trump is also doing well in battleground polling in Florida, New Hampshire, and Colorado — states the Clinton campaign thought were firmly in hand as late as last week.
Silver’s analysis gave Trump Ohio, Iowa and Arizona, whereas Clinton won Virginia and Pennsylvania.
North Carolina, Florida and Nevada were all classified as tipping points in the race, meaning that those states are just too close to call at the moment.
Clinton currently leads in national polling by 1.7 percent in the Real Clear polling average, earning 47 percent compared to Trump’s 45.3 percent.
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