Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly claimed Tuesday that President Donald Trump could be headed for reelection with the “hidden” support that most polling fails to capture.
“What we’ve noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote, what is referred to as the shy Trump voter,” Cahaly told Fox News’ “Hannity.” The conservative Trafalgar Group was one of only two polling firms that accurately predicted Trump’s victory in the presidential election of 2016.
“There is a clear feeling among conservatives and people that are for the president, that they are not interested in sharing their opinions so readily on the telephone — we’ve seen people being beat up, harassed, doxed, have their houses torn up, because they express political opinions that are not in line with … the politically correct establishment,” Cahaly continued. (RELATED: Trump Tells Nevada Rally That Biden Family Is ‘A Criminal Enterprise,’ Crowd Chants ‘Lock Him Up’)
The Trafalgar Group is considered a Republican-leaning polling firm and has been assessed by polling analyst FiveThirtyEight as having a C- rating based on the group’s accuracy and methodology. The latest RealClear Politics average of presidential polls shows Biden with an 8.5% lead over Trump, 51% to 42.5%.
The “shy Trump voter” that Cahaly refers to, a silent majority that is supposedly not reflected in mainstream polling, may not be a factor that the president can count on in 2020.
“Shy voters” should be less likely to indicate support for Trump in blue states where such support carries more stigma, but Trump outperformed 2016 polls the most in red states, which would not indicate a “shy voter” phenomenon, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Cahaly also suggested that if Trump voters do not “feel more comfortable that [a poll] is anonymous, you are not going to get honest answers.”
He predicted that Trump could win at least 270 Electoral College votes or “significantly” more — depending on “on how high the undercurrent is.”
The pollster also said Trump is attracting a larger share of the black and Hispanic vote than has been the case for many decades and that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden “is not getting anywhere near the 80%” black voter support that his party routinely draws.
Cahaly said the Hunter Biden email story has almost exclusively been the domain of conservative media — something the pollster said should be a scandal in its own right because “the mainstream media are acting like it doesn’t exist.” He suggested Trump could score huge political points with the story if he raises it during this Thursday’s presidential debate with its more “bipartisan audience.”
“I think Biden might crack, kind of like he did in the primaries, and if that happens, well, then the mainstream media is going to have to cover it.”
The New York Post first reported that Biden’s alleged emails, recovered from a laptop left at a Delaware computer repair shop in April 2019, showed a top executive of Burisma Holdings, a Ukrainian natural gas company where Hunter Biden eventually landed a seat on the board of directors, thanking Hunter Biden for the opportunity to meet with his father. (RELATED: Former RNC Chairman Michael Steele: Election is Choice Between ‘America Or Trump’)
The Biden campaign has denied that any meeting took place. Hunter Biden has not denied leaving his laptop with the computer repair shop. The Daily Caller has not independently confirmed the veracity of the email.
He noted that Biden’s tendency to avoid campaigning could also be eroding his support.
“It wasn’t so long ago that Hillary Clinton talked about the 3 a.m. phone call; I’m beginning to whether whether a noon phone call is a problem here.”