Say goodbye to La Niña, say hello to La Niña.
The chances of the world having to deal with the weather pattern known as La Niña are rising, increasing the Atlantic’s risk of hurricanes and the chance of droughts in California and South America.
“During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North,” the National Ocean Service explains.
La Niña has a 55% chance of occurring between the months of June, July and August this year, and is expected to pick up as the once-strong El Niño begins to fade, according to a Thursday announcement from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center.
The threats from La Niña can create severe weather threats, including powerful hurricanes and shear winds — winds simultaneously heading in different directions or blowing at different strengths. La Niña also causes droughts, pulling rain away from the western United States, as well as parts of Brazil and Argentina.
To explain La Niña a little further, it’s a process when the Pacific Ocean cools on a temporary basis, switching up the weather all around the world. Here in the United States, they equate to more hurricanes and storms in the Atlantic, while droughts and wildfires plague the West. On top of that, La Niñas typically cause far more damage than their counterpart, the El Niño.
A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance). An #ElNino Advisory remains in effect. A #LaNina Watch has been issued. https://t.co/5zlzaZ1aZx pic.twitter.com/HUkX4wBtuU
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) February 8, 2024
Okay, so here’s the thing about the 55% chance: I’m going to make an analogy to my sports betting (even though it’s more investing, and here’s why).
When I gamble on sports, I use the +EV (Expected Value) formula, meaning every sportsbook pick I make has at least 3% value (which is good for book picks), while every DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) pick has a minimum of 55%. So, for example, every slip that I make on PrizePicks has a 55% to 45% chance to hit, and with me placing a large volume of bets, I profit because the value is always on my side. (RELATED: WARNING: It Appears That We’re In For One Hell Of A Violent Hurricane Season In 2024)
My point is: With La Niña having a 55% chance of developing, I think we’re gonna end up being the books and are gonna have to deal with a profitable weather system. In other words, the weather is not looking good.
La Niña is coming … you’ve been warned.