A number of recent polls have shown former President Donald Trump polling surprisingly well in New York, a trend that could force Democrats to defend the state they have historically taken for granted.
While President Joe Biden beat Trump by 23 points in the Democratic stronghold during the 2020 election, Trump has consistently polled within single digits of Biden in 2024. Though the former president is unlikely to seriously contend for the state, Republicans are hopeful that Trump’s popularity could boost candidates down ballot, akin to when the GOP flipped seats in the 2022 midterm elections thanks in part to a strong showing at the top of the ticket from gubernatorial challenger Lee Zeldin. This dynamic could created unexpectedly challenging election cycle for New York Democrats. (RELATED: ‘We Have Enough Criminals’: NYC Lawmakers Unveil Bill To End City’s Sanctuary Status Amid Immigration Crisis)
“The highest taxes in America throupled with self-inflicted crime and migrant crises are rinsing much of the blue out of the state, at least attitudinally,” Republican political consultant William F. B. O’Reilly told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “This dynamic is forcing Democrats to spend tens of millions of dollars in a state they took for granted just four years ago.”
Supporters of former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump attend a campaign rally in the South Bronx in New York City on May 23, 2024. (Photo by JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)
In a two-way race, Biden is only leading Trump by seven points in New York, according to an Emerson College/The Hill/PIX11 poll from May. In a five-way race, Trump only trails behind Biden by six points, according to the same poll. Similarly, Trump trails Biden by nine points in a New York Times/Siena College poll from May.
By comparison, the NYT/Siena poll from June 2023 had Biden leading Trump in New York by over 20 points.
“Independent voters in New York who traditionally vote for Democrats, according to exit polling, have flipped to lean toward Trump by a margin of ten points, 43% to 33%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement.
In May, Trump drew thousands to his rally in the Bronx, a largely Democratic area.
“New York might be a blue state, but it’s not AOC-progressive blue, it’s blue-collar blue,” David Laska, director of communications for the New York Republican Party, told DCNF.
In 2022, Republicans managed to flip for congressional seats in New York, while in the 2022 gubernatorial race, Republican challenger Lee Zeldin lost by only 5.8% to Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, whereas in the previous gubernatorial election, Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo beat his Republican challenger Marc Molinaro by 23.4%.
Police tape secures a crime scene outside a club after a shooting in Brooklyn on October 12, 2019. At least four people died and three were wounded in a shooting at a social club in New York early Saturday, police said. No one has been arrested over the shooting, which took place in Brooklyn. (Photo by Johannes EISELE / AFP)
Trump’s strong polling numbers dovetail with increasing pessimism among New York voters.
The majority of registered voters in New York say the state is headed in the wrong direction, and nearly a third say they are considering leaving because of the political environment, according to a United NY/Citizen Data poll. Many average New York voters are feeling pessimistic, with 41% saying their state’s politics are “broken beyond repair,” and only 31% saying the government is salvageable.
Of those who are considering leaving the state, 77% attribute their decision to high taxes and 63% attribute it due to the government. (RELATED: Documents Reveal Further Ties Between Eric Adams And Country At The Center Of His Corruption Probe)
“New Yorkers realize that Joe Biden, Kathy Hochul and far-left progressives have driven up prices at the store, released criminals back onto our streets and plunged our nation and state into an unmanageable illegal migrant crisis,” Laska told the DCNF.
Crime has remained a top issue for voters, with 47% saying it should be a top government priority, according to the poll.
In 2022, New York state saw roughly a 21% increase in overall reported crimes compared to the previous year, according to a report released by Hochul’s office. Violent crime in New York City also increased by about 15% in 2022, along with a 32% increase in property related crimes.
Immigration is also a top priority, with 37% saying the government should prioritize the issue, according to the United NY/Citizen Data poll. Since 2022, more than 180,000 migrants have flooded into New York City alone, which has also contributed to crime increases in the sanctuary city. New York City has since issued budgetary cuts in order to keep funding public programs that aid illegal immigrants. (RELATED: Illegal Immigrant Accused Of Shooting NYPD Cops Had Immigration Case Dismissed By Judge, ICE Confirms)
“Whether Donald Trump can win New York is anybody’s guess, but the fact that it’s being debated speaks volumes about where things are in the state,” O’Reilly told the DCNF. “Voters are poised to revolt.”
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