Vice President Kamala Harris has gained on former President Donald Trump in the first national polls conducted since President Joe Biden exited the 2024 campaign, but these polls distract from the reality of her grim electoral chances.
Harris enjoyed a notable bump in national polls released Monday and Tuesday. Yahoo News and YouGov’s poll has her tied with Trump (a two-point gain) and Harris leads Trump by two (a two-point gain) in Reuters and Ipsos’ poll. The vice president has also closed her national polling gap by 0.3% in RealClearPolling’s (RCP) national average since the president’s announcement, but that average is likely still weighted by pre-dropout polling.
The reason Harris is making these gains is because of hard-line Democrats coming back, not her winning over undecided or Trump voters. She is galvanizing a base that was disillusioned by a decrepit president who few had the confidence in to govern effectively. This bump has nothing to do with Harris and everything to do with the fact that Biden was one of the weakest incumbents in American history. The vice president is making gains among voters that should have been slam dunks for Democrats.
Unfortunately for the Harris campaign, these national polls have no bearing on how U.S. presidential elections are decided. Large states with millions of Democrats like New York and California give the Democrats a systematic advantage in the national popular vote, but it cannot win elections for them. The electoral college defines the real results and she is trailing in decisive swing states. (RELATED: Wall Street Elites Plot To Turn Kamala Into Their ‘Yes Man’ Puppet, And It Involves Lots And Lots Of Cash)
BREAKING: CNN data analyst Harry Enten says it is going to be difficult for Kamala Harris to beat Trump.
“Donald Trump is more popular now than he has ever been before.” pic.twitter.com/2B7KEM4cgt
— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) July 24, 2024
Trump defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by a total of roughly 100,000 votes in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in 2016. Clinton had 2% (nearly 3 million) more total votes for the popular vote. While the former president lost to Joe Biden, it was by a total of roughly 40,000 votes in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin and it coincided with a 4.5% loss in the national popular vote. Harris will probably need to win the national vote by 4% or more to win the Electoral College, a mark that she currently sits 5.6% behind in the RCP average.
Trump is handily beating Harris in swing states, according to various polling averages. RCP only has two swing-state Trump-vs-Harris averages at the moment and they show the former president ahead by 5.4% in Georgia and 4% in Pennsylvania. Wins in these two states would likely be enough for Trump to eclipse the magic number of 270 when combined with his electoral firewall.
Decision Desk HQ has produced polling averages for the other four major swing states and they paint a dark picture for Harris’ prospects. Trump leads Harris by 8.6% in Nevada, 7.2% in Arizona, 2.2% in Michigan and 1.8% in Wisconsin. The vice president will most likely need to clinch each of the Rust Belt swing states (Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) to win the election.
Kamala may have a slight national bump, but her chances of winning the electoral college remain slim.
