Biden’s Lead Widens In Arizona, Narrows In North Carolina, NYT Poll Shows

(LEFT: FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP via Getty Images; RIGHT: Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

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Andrew Trunsky Political Reporter
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Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by nine points in Arizona and one point in North Carolina, according to the latest New York Times/Siena poll.

The results are the latest indication that Biden’s lead is widening in Arizona and narrowing in North Carolina, the Times reported. Biden led in Arizona and North Carolina by two points and five points, respectively, in August, according to RealClearPolitics.

In Arizona, Biden’s lead mirrors that of former astronaut Mark Kelly, who leads incumbent GOP Sen. Martha McSally by eight points, 50-42, according to the poll’s crosstabs. Kelly has continuously led McSally both in polls and in fundraising, according to Open Secrets, leading some forecasters to believe that the seat will flip in November.

Trump speaks during a campaign rally (Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images)

In North Carolina, the only state with competitive races at the presidential, senatorial and gubernatorial level, Democratic senatorial nominee Cal Cunningham leads GOP Sen. Thom Tillis by five points, 42-37, according to the NYT poll, with 16% of voters saying that they remain undecided.

Cunningham has also held a consistent lead in polls, but often by a slim margin. Forecasters describe the race as a tossup for November. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper leads his opponent, GOP Lt. Gov. Dan Forest, 47-42, according to the poll. (RELATED: These Vulnerable Senators Risk Losing Their Seats, Costing The GOP The Majority)

Biden holds a double digit lead in Maine, where GOP Sen. Susan Collins trails state House Speaker Sara Gideon 49-44, according to the poll. Collins, a moderate, pro-choice Republican, won her fourth term in 2014 by more than 35 points.

Biden also holds a two point lead in Maine’s 2nd District, which Trump won in 2016, underscoring Biden’s inroads with older white voters. (Maine and Nebraska are the only two states to allocate electoral votes by congressional district.)

Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, who barely flipped the 2nd District in 2018, holds a 19 point lead over his Republican challenger, the NYT poll shows.

Voters in each state also trust Biden over Trump to lead the nation out of the coronavirus pandemic, the poll shows. Biden leads on the issue by 16 points, 11 points and 25 points in Arizona, North Carolina and Maine, respectively. (Here’s Where The Presidential Race Stands In The Six Most Competitive States)

Voters in Arizona and Maine trust Biden over Trump to maintain law and order by margins of six and 14 points, respectively, while voters in North Carolina trust Trump over Biden to better lead on the issue by two points, according to the poll.

The poll surveyed 635 likely voters in Arizona from Sept. 10-15, 653 likely voters in North Carolina from and 663 likely voters in Maine from Sept. 11-16. The margin of error in each state is 4.1%, 4.3% and 5.1%, respectively.

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