Although Democrats were able to pick up one Senate seat in the 2022 midterm, the 2024 upper chamber map will be less forgiving for the party.
Of the 34 Senate seats up for grabs, 23 are held by Democrats or independents who caucus with the Democrats. Three of those seats are in states Donald Trump won in the 2020 election, while none of the 11 Republican-held seats are in states Joe Biden won.
These seven seats are most likely to flip, based on 2020 presidential election margins.
West Virginia
Democratic West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin has won two Senate races in one of the reddest states in the nation, most recently in 2018 by three points against state Attorney General Patrick Morrissey. Manchin is the only Democratic member of the state’s congressional delegation, and the only Democrat who has won a West Virginia statewide election since 2016. Rep. Alex Mooney has already declared a challenge to Manchin, and Gov. Jim Justice is likely to run, as well.
Manchin won his first election in 1982, and he held a 42% statewide approval rating in October. (RELATED: ‘I’m Just Praying To God It’s Not 50-50’: Sen. Manchin Weighs In On Midterms)
Montana
Democratic Montana Sen. Jon Tester is likely to face off against Republican Rep. Matt Rosendale or Republican Rep.-elect Ryan Zinke in a state Trump won by 16 points. Although Democrats considered GOP Sen. Steve Daines a key target in 2020, he defeated Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock by 10 points. Both candidates and outside groups spent more than $174 million combined in the 2020 race.
WASHINGTON, DC – DECEMBER 05: Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) walks to the Senate Chambers for a nomination vote at the U.S. Capitol Building on December 05, 2022 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
Ohio
Despite representing a red-trending state, Democrat Sherrod Brown was the fifth-most liberal senator in the 117th Congress, according to Progressive Punch. Although GOP Sen.-elect JD Vance defeated Rep. Tim Ryan by six points in 2022, Gov. Mike DeWine, Secretary of State Frank LaRose and Attorney General Dave Yost, all Republican incumbents, won their re-election bids by at least 19.6 points.
Brown won reelection bids in 2012 by six points and 2018 by seven points. State Sen. Matt Dolan, who finished third in the 2022 GOP Senate primary, is reportedly considering a second run, as is businessman Bernie Moreno, who dropped out of the race, according to Politico. LaRose is also likely to enter the primary field.
Arizona
In an effort to stave off a primary challenge from Rep. Ruben Gallego, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema formally became an independent, although she will still caucus with the party. Gallego is still considering a bid, which could set up a three-way race between him, Sinema and a Republican. (RELATED: ‘Answers To Corporations And Billionaires’: Dems Blast Kyrsten Sinema After She Leaves The Party)
Gallego’s team has released polls showing a tight hypothetical race between him and Kari Lake, with Sinema a distant third. National Republicans hope outgoing Gov. Doug Ducey could enter the race. Treasurer Kimberly Yee, who won reelection in 2022 by 11 points, could also run.
Rep. Ruben Gallego releases a PPP poll of potential 2024 ARIZONA Senate matchups with and without Sinema:
3-way
Kari Lake (R) 41
Gallego (D) 40
Sinema (I) 132-way
Gallego (D) 48
Lake (R) 47Lake (R) 42
Sinema (I) 3912/19-20, 678 RVs, +/-3.8%https://t.co/fQuqUhp7bp pic.twitter.com/MEKL5Ph5gV
— Jacob Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) December 22, 2022
Republican challenger Blake Masters lost to incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly by five points in the worst performance by an Arizona Republican Senate candidate since 1988.
Wisconsin
Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin under-performed President Barack Obama in 2012, but she won reelection by 11 points in 2018. Wisconsin will be one of only five states with split Senate delegations in the 118th Congress, although Sen. Ron Johnson is the only statewide-elected Republican. GOP Rep. Mike Gallagher would be a heavy favorite in a Republican primary, but has said 2024 is “not on my mind.”
Nevada
Although many observers considered Catherine Cortez Masto the Senate’s most endangered Democrat, she eked out a 0.8 point win over Republican challenger and former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt. Sam Brown, an Army veteran who lost to Laxalt in the primary, has not ruled out a second Senate campaign.
Michigan
Four-term incumbent Democrat Debbie Stabenow will run for a fifth term in 2024. Although Biden won Michigan by 2.8 points in 2020, incumbent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer won in 2022 by more than 10 points. Stabenow has won each of her reelection bids by at least 6.5 points.
