Democrats are very likely to lose Senate control this November and it has nothing to do with Joe Biden’s political weakness.
The party currently holds a 51-49 Senate majority if you count the four independents who caucus with them. They can only lose two seats (or one seat if they retain the White House) to hold control of the upper chamber.
Defending such a narrow majority is already a difficult task, but that is amplified by which Senators are up for reelection this November. Of the thirty-four Senators defending their seats this cycle, only eleven are Republicans. This leaves Democrats to defend more than double the amount of seats as their counterparts.
To make matters worse, the Democrats are defending seats in a host of swing states, and even some strongly Republican ones. The Democrats are defending seats in seven states that Donald Trump won in 2016, as well as two states that were decided for Hillary Clinton by less than 3%. In addition, three of the states that Trump won were decided by more than 8% and two were decided by over 20%.
As if that was not difficult enough, Republicans are defending just two seats in states that could be considered remotely close calls in 2020, in the Republican-leaning states of Texas and Florida. (RELATED: New Projection Of Trump’s Popular Vote Spells Doom For Biden)
Of the eleven seats Republicans are defending, nine are considered “safe.” This means that barring a momentous and unexpected change in events, these seats will remain in Republican hands.
The Republicans also have a race categorized as “Safe” which will be a flip from the Democrats. West Virginia, where incumbent moderate Democrat, recently turned independent, Joe Manchin is retiring, is extremely likely to stay true to its Republican DNA. Manchin’s long history in the state and more conservative stances have kept him in this seat longer than many expected. Without Manchin running, it will be very difficult for the Democrats to hold his seat, especially with the popular Republican governor Jim Justice running to take over the seat.
The Republicans are defending two seats categorized as “Likely.” This means that it is possible but unlikely that the state will go to the opposing party.
FLORIDA: Rick Scott is defending his seat in Florida, a state that has been trending quickly toward Republicans in the Trump era. The Democrats have not won a federal or gubernatorial election in Florida since 2012 and following the dominant victories of Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio in 2022, it is unlikely that Scott’s seat will flip.
TEXAS: Texas has yielded closer results than normal in recent elections, with Donald Trump winning it in 2020 by just under six percent. Despite that, there is little to suggest that Texas is ready to go blue yet. Incumbent Senator Ted Cruz will likely win reelection even if the national temperature favors Democrats.
It is worth noting that at this point, Republicans have retained each of the seats they are defending and picked one up, putting them one pickup or a Donald Trump victory away from chamber control.
The Democrats have four seats that currently are considered “likely” wins.
The solid blue state of Maryland could see a shakeup this cycle with incumbent Ben Cardin retiring and former two-term Republican governor Larry Hogan running to take his place. Polling from early May suggests that Hogan trails Democrat Angela Alsobrooks by nine or ten percent, a steep hill to climb, but a significantly smaller margin than Maryland is normally decided by.
In Minnesota, former presidential candidate Amy Klobuchar will look to defend her seat, likely against banker Joe Fraser. Klobuchar is one of the strongest incumbents in the country despite Minnesota’s tightening in recent presidential elections. She will more than likely return to the Senate, but it is not inconceivable that something weird could happen in the state Hillary Clinton won by under 3%.
New Jersey is unlikely to flip, but with a three-term Senator running as an independent due to bribery charges, anything could happen. Incumbent Democrat Bob Menendez will be on the ballot as an independent alongside new Democratic nominee Andy Kim and Republican Curtis Bashaw. Kim leads Bashaw by nine percent according to an April poll from Fairleigh Dickinson University, a large lead, but not comfortable, especially considering that he is under fifty percent in these polls.
And in Virginia, former vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine is looking to secure a third term in the Senate this November. Kaine has strong incumbency advantage due to his former governorship and national profile, but Virginia recently elected a Republican governor in Glenn Youngkin and polling suggests it may be very competitive on the presidential level. Kaine will likely win reelection, but it is not inconceivable that Republicans flip this seat.
This is where the real battle lines are drawn. The next category is “Lean” states, where one party has a clear advantage, but it is far from safe and even a small turn of events could change the state of the race drastically. Three key swing states are categorized as “Leaning Democrat.”
In Arizona, Democratic Rep. Reuben Gallego is leading embattled Republican Kari Lake by 6.6% in the race to replace left-leaning Independent Kyrsten Sinema, according to the RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling average. Trump is leading Biden in Arizona at the moment, but Lake is underperforming Trump by 10.8% according to RCP averages. This is significant — voters are splitting their votes for Trump and Gallego at a rate that cannot happen if Lake expects to be elected in November. This race has a clear advantage for Gallego at the moment.
Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey, the Democratic incumbent, will face the toughest reelection battle of his political life in November. The three-term incumbent has gained a reputation for winning by massive margins even as the state trends to the right but is in a much closer battle at the moment. The RealClearPolitics average shows Casey leading his likely challenger David McCormick by 4.9%, holding 46.7% of support, notably low for any incumbent but even more so due to Casey’s electoral reputation. This lead, and Casey’s strength as a candidate, make this race “Lean Democrat”, but it is likely that it will remain close considering Pennsylvania’s importance to the battle for the White House.
Wisconsin Democrat Tammy Baldwin will look to fend off a challenge from likely Republican nominee Eric Hovde as one of the most competitive states in modern American politics reenters the spotlight for 2024. Wisconsin will be extremely competitive in the presidential election, with Trump in a virtual tie with Biden according to RCP. Despite that, Baldwin holds a 7.7% lead according to the RCP average. Baldwin’s large lead gives her a clear advantage at the moment.
Tossups are races with no clear leader. There may be a small advantage for one candidate, but it is not distinct enough to give the state a designation for either party. There are currently four of them for 2024.
Three-term Democrat incumbent Debbie Stabenow is retiring in Michigan, setting up a likely battle between former Republican Representative Mike Rogers and Democratic Representative Elissa Slotkin. Michigan has been a “Democratic-leaning swing state” for nearly a decade and Republicans will look to break through with their first Senate win there since 1994. This state is likely to be a dogfight at both the presidential and senate levels, with Trump ahead by .3% and Slotkin by 1.8% in their respective RCP averages.
Montana is a rare state to see listed among the most competitive in the nation, but moderate Democrat Jon Tester has won this seat three times and is going for a fourth. He will face a challenge from retired Navy SEAL and Aerospace CEO Tim Sheehy who secured Trump’s endorsement in the primary. Trump will likely secure the state comfortably, meaning Tester will need a large portion of the electorate to split their ballot between parties to get the win in November. Despite the uphill climb, he remains 5.5% ahead of Sheehy in the RCP average, giving this race tossup status despite its heavy partisan lean.
Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen, who unseated Republican Dean Heller in 2018, is running for a second term against Republican Sam Brown, the founder of a medical support company. Nevada has been competitive for more than two decades but has not often flipped to Republicans despite close finishes. That could change this cycle as Rosen sits at only 42.3% in the RCP average. This could be a major warning signal for her fate in November, especially with Donald Trump leading in Nevada’s presidential race.
Ohio, the former midwestern bellwether that picked the president in every election from 1964-2016, has shifted substantially toward Republicans in recent years. This has not fazed Democrat Sherrod Brown, who won reelection by nearly seven points in 2018. The incumbent will have a difficult challenge, defending his seat with Trump at the top of the ticket and his chosen candidate right below him in Bernie Moreno.
Brown currently leads Moreno by 5% in the RCP average, but sits at only 42.3%, dangerously low for an incumbent — especially in a presidential year where the state is likely to vote for the Republican nominee by a large margin. More polling with a Moreno lead would be necessary to consider this state “leaning” Republican, but the formula for a Democratic win here is difficult to conjure up.
This leaves the battle for the Senate with 50 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and 4 tossups, leaving Republicans either a Trump victory or a tossup win from a majority. This race remains extremely difficult for Democrats due to the map and only time will tell if they will be able to overcome this challenge.
