MSNBC national political correspondent Steve Kornacki broke down a “big change” to the Democratic ticket’s polling averages on Monday since Vice President Kamala Harris entered the race.
Kornacki pointed to Harris’ average favorability rating increasing from 38% to 46% since June, while Biden’s current favorability rating dropped from 42% to 39% during that same time frame. Republican nominee Donald Trump’s favorability rating has remained at an average of 43% since June, while 54% have continued to disapprove of him.
“Before Harris got in, these are the numbers Joe Biden was racking up,” Kornacki said. “Just as unpopular, maybe a little more unpopular than Donald Trump, and when she first got in the race, Kamala Harris was right in that same ballpark, but look at what’s happened with her numbers in the last month. They have moved. Her average favorable score is up 8 points, her unfavorable score, that’s still high, 49%, but it went to a majority now to just under 50%. And those numbers, you can see, they are better than Donald Trump’s numbers on those favorable, unfavorable.”
MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki Breaks Down ‘Big Change’ To Dem Ticket’s Support Since Biden Left Race pic.twitter.com/kt07sYmf4E
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Kornacki said racial and ethnic demographics, along with young voters, are “at the heart” of Harris’ rising momentum in the polls. (RELATED: ‘Clear Momentum’: CNN Data Guru Says Harris’ Polling Bump Is Causing Trump To Go ‘Bananas’ Despite ‘No Clear Leader’)
Kornacki noted that Biden’s “historically low” support among black voters improved since Harris entered the race, but that the numbers still remain lower than usual. The Democratic ticket’s lead among black voters rose to 77% with Harris in the race, up from Biden’s 71% to 19% lead over Trump.
“A lot of talk before Joe Biden got out, Biden was struggling [at] unusually low levels for a Democrat. This is what Joe Biden had been running at on average in the polls, 71%-19% over Trump … Since Harris got in, well there’s improvement there, she’s running 61 points in the black vote, Biden was only 52 [points] up. But that Trump number, even to be polling at 16%, that’s unusually high for a Republican in a presidential race to be polling even at 16% among black voters.”
Biden held a 90% to 9% lead against Trump among black voters during the 2020 election, Kornacki noted.
Harris currently has a 53% to 40% lead among Hispanic voters in polls, a significantly wider margin than Biden’s 47% to 44% lead among that subgroup after the June 27 debate. The president’s lead among Hispanic voters dropped from his 63% to 34% lead over Trump during the 2020 presidential election.
“This is where you see a major shift … Again, 40% for Trump right now. Historically speaking, that’d be very impressive for a Republican. But that’s a big change in the context of this race from Biden winning Hispanic voters on average by 3, Harris over the last month by average of 13 points. That’s a momentum shift there, or at least a statistical shift,” Kornacki said.
Kornacki further pointed to the improved momentum among voters ranging from 18 to 29 years of age, where Biden led that demographic by 8 points. Harris currently leads among young voters, 57% to 35% against Trump.
“Again, we heard so much with Joe Biden struggling relatively speaking with young voters. He had been winning among 18-29-year-olds, 50% to 42%, an 8-point margin, Biden was before leaving the race,” Kornacki continued. “Harris, since getting in, look at this over the last month on average. She leads with under 30’s with 22 points. That’s a 14-point jump. So again, overall, Harris [is] up 2 [points] on average, Biden had been down 3 [points] on average, and these are some of the groups that are at the heart of that movement.”
Kornacki further shows Harris narrowly leading Trump 48% to 46% nationally, while Biden trailed his predecessor 44% to 47%.
CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said on Friday that women voters are largely responsible for Harris’ growing momentum. Enten said Harris is leading Trump with an 11-point margin nationally, while Biden held a 4-point lead against the former president.
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