The mid-term elections expectation game is in full gear and it is widely anticipated that the Republicans will make substantial gains on Tuesday, November 2nd.
I don’t mean to be a speed bump at the Indy 500, but here are 10 ways the GOP might have less to celebrate on the morning of November 3rd. Especially if they….
1. Underestimate President Obama
His appearance on The View was the beginning of what will be a full-scale charm offensive. Voters like him personally but don’t like his policies, so expect him to take advantage of his “Mr. Congeniality” on-camera presence. His hope is that voters will remember “The One” that won them over in 2008. First Lady Michelle will also be out in force on the campaign trail, and she is very popular among African-American women whose votes could tip the scale in a tight race.
2. Underestimate the Unions
What does $100 million sound like? A lot of TV ads and a full tank of gas in many campaign engines. AFSCME (The American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees) plans to spend $50 million to fund “a massive incumbent protection program.” SEIU (The Service Employees International Union) has $44 million on tap to “protect members who voted for the health care reform bill” (Gives new meaning to that old cliché “protection money”). The AFL-CIO declines to provide a dollar amount for their campaign spending but “plans to spend big,” according to a spokesperson. So count on total union spending to be more than $100 million, a new record for a mid-term election. That’s a huge chunk of union dues, but obviously the union leadership thinks the stakes are high enough to warrant spending at such historic levels.
3. Underestimate the Power of Democratic Money
According to the Washington Post the Democrats have a money advantage.
“..the Democrats’ money edge in more than two- thirds of its most competitive (House) seats should allow the targeted incumbents to define themselves….traditionally a recipe for campaign success”
The article goes on to debate the advantage of money when the mood is sour against incumbents, but the money advantage should not be downplayed in any race at any level. Besides the funds from the Democratic Party itself, there are outside groups that will pour millions into the midterms in addition to the Unions mentioned above. Hello $ George Soros $ and others of his ilk.
If you click on www.opensecrets.org they are keeping a running daily tally of all midterm expenditures for all candidates, parties and issue groups. At this writing it was up to $2.7 billion.
4. Underestimate the Democratic Ground Game
Boots on the ground — get out the vote — whether its Union feet, Acorn feet, or just tired feet, the Democrats led by “The Community Organizer in Chief” are very efficient at getting out the vote.
The Democratic National Committee stated they had 250 field organizing offices in all 50 states and that was back in April 2010. All the money they have raised can buy an army of field troops ready to drive people to the polls, make calls on election day, and who knows what other new or old “creative ways” are being contemplated to ensure votes get cast.