Politics

TheDC Election Outlook: Republicans slightly widen playing field in gubernatorial races

Jonathan Strong Jonathan Strong, 27, is a reporter for the Daily Caller covering Congress. Previously, he was a reporter for Inside EPA where he wrote about environmental regulation in great detail, and before that a staffer for Rep. Dan Lungren (R-CA). Strong graduated from Wheaton College (IL) with a degree in political science in 2006. He is a huge fan of and season ticket holder to the Washington Capitals hockey team. Strong and his wife reside in Arlington.
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In the past week, Republicans have slightly widened the playing field in gubernatorial races, making significant gains in Hawaii while strengthening their lead in Ohio, polls show.

Meanwhile, a Republican candidate’s lead in Maine slightly decreased and a Democrat widened his lead some against independent candidate Lincoln Chaffee in Rhode Island.

The movement does not change the underlying trend that Republicans are poised for major gains in governors’ mansions across the country.

The party that holds the governorship in each state plays a crucial role in how that state draws the boundaries for its congressional districts. Cumulatively, then, the 2010 gubernatorial races will have a huge impact on the congressional campaign landscape for the next decade.

Hawaii

The poll movement in Hawaii’s governor’s race was the most surprising change in the past week.

Democratic Congressman Neil Abercrombie is running against Republican Duke Aiona. In one of the most liberal states in the union, Abercrombie has led in polls by as many as 26 points. In an August poll, he was up by 12 points.

But three straight polls released in the past week show Abercrombie leading only by two or three points.

Abercrombie and Aiona debated on television on Oct. 12. During the debate, Aiona questioned how Abercrombie would pay for his proposals.

Ohio

The latest poll released shows former Republican Congressman and Fox News host John Kasich pulling away from incumbent Democrat Gov. Ted Strickland.

The poll shows Kasich up eight points.

The movement is important because Strickland has attacked Kasich with a flurry of negative television advertisements, but Kasich appears to be weathering the impact of the ads quite well.

California

Republican candidate Meg Whitman has showed resilience in the California governor’s race, as liberal Democrat Jerry Brown’s momentum stemming from an illegal alien housekeeper spat may be receding.

Whitman’s former housekeeper recently attacked Whitman and Whitman has come under criticism because the housekeeper is in this country illegally.

Whitman said the housekeeper lied about her citizenship, but in the days after the revelation her standing in polls took a major hit.

The latest poll shows only a four point lead for Brown. We will likely get a better sense of what is happening in the race this week.