Romney: To Florida and Beyond

Governor Mitt Romney has the firm jaw, the upright bearing, the business experience and the fat wallet needed to become the GOP nominee, but first he’s got to get through Florida.

The Sunshine State is a patchwork replica of the GOPs many demographic groups; It’s got social-conservatives, party loyalists, Chamber of Commerce people, libertarians, Tea Partiers, Hispanics and Jews. The value of Romney’s character and resume will largely be determined by those primary voters, because they will give a winner a great shove toward the Super Tuesday states, and hand the losers a frozen margarita for the airplane ride home.

This will be Romney’s second time in the Land of the Punched Chad. Back in 2007, liberal Republican Gov. Charlie Crist pushed the struggling Sen. John McCain past Romney, and then towards eventual defeat in the general election.

Romney will be returning in 2012 with most of the same team of advisors, but with a new strategy. In 2007, he went for early victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, but lost the one state to Governor Mike Huckabee and the other to McCain. Some portion of that defeat is due to dislike of his Mormon faith, say consultants and politicians. In 2011, he’ll lay low in Iowa and South Carolina to avoid the taint of rejection by those states’ Christian social-conservatives.

Romney is wise to avoid Iowa and South Carolina, said John Stembergerer, director of the Florida Family Policy Council. Romney’s record as the liberal-leaning governor of extremely liberal Massachusetts from 2003 to 2007, and his statements in a debate against Sen. Ted Kennedy during the close Senate race of 1994, show that he’s got a liberal bent, he said. Romney been married for 42 years, has five grown children, and says he’s pro-life, but he didn’t fight hard when the courts redefined marriage in 2003 from an institution for child-rearing into an amenity for gay and straight adults, he said. “I don’t think he’s trusted on social issues,” Stembergerer said.

Instead, Romney will push very hard for a victory in second-to-vote New Hampshire, said a Romney advisor. “He’s got to win New Hampshire… it’s ground-zero,” said a Romney advisor. Romney is already doing well in the state, advisors say, and polls show him at a comfortable plurality of 40 percent in a fractured race. His advantages include name-recognition because of his governorship in next-door Massachusetts, and because he has a home in the state.

Romney will also push for an early victory in Nevada, which likely votes a few days after New Hampshire. He won there in 2007, and he’s got good prospects among older, business-friendly voters in Nevada, and also among his the 7 percent slice of the state that are Mormons.

Victories in New Hampshire and Nevada will power Romney into Florida, where his money, organization and broad appeal will help him win in a fractured GOP field, said one of his advisors. Back in 2007, Romney was seen as the leader and was the target of painful attacks-ads from nearly every other candidates, he said. This time, the attack-ads will be divided among several candidates, he said.

NEXT: Romney's calculations for victory among Republican factions