Matt Lewis & The News

The first debate for the 2012 GOP primary — sponsored by Fox News and the South Carolina Republican Party — won’t include many of the party’s biggest names, but it might include fireworks.

Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty will be the most prominent candidate in attendance. He will be joined by former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, former Godfathers Pizza CEO Herman Cain, and former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson.

So who stands to gain most in this milieu? This seems to be the perfect recipe for Herman Cain.

A skilled communicator, Cain is clearly the best orator in the bunch. And the fact that he will be competing for attention with just four other candidates means he will gain a tremendous amount of exposure in this nationally-televised debate.

Don’t be surprised if Cain uses this debate as a platform to elevate his candidacy, much in the same way that Mike Huckabee’s early debate performance helped catapult him into the top-tier.

Former Sen. Rick Santorum might also benefit. Once considered a rising star in the GOP, Santorum is now considered a long-shot for the nomination. But he still has a few things going for him. His background as a U.S. senator means he has more foreign policy experience than most of the other candidates on stage. And on a superficial note, he probably looks and sounds more “presidential” than the other participating candidates.

And while some candidates might have a hard time parlaying a successful debate performance into something bigger, Santorum may have the most potential. If he can prove himself during early debates — and that’s a big if — there could a tipping point where national political donors (including a network of prominent conservative Catholics) begin to believe in him again. Santorum would need to catch fire early in order to make this long-shot a reality, so look for him to come out swinging.

Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty might also gain from this exposure, but also has much to lose.

On one hand, despite the fact that he is considered a top-tier candidate, Pawlenty is not widely known by the general public. This debate will give him an opportunity to get exposure that other top-tier candidates will not.

But while Pawlenty probably couldn’t afford to turn down this opportunity, he is entering extremely dangerous territory. Like a man wearing an expensive suit on the wrong side of town, he has seemingly more to lose than his adversaries.

His opponents will be liberated (and even incentivized) to throw around fiery rhetoric, while Pawlenty’s top-tier status may lead him to weigh his words more carefully. For an already charismatically-challenged candidate, this creates an almost “no-win” scenario.

Also worth noting is that two of the five GOP debate participants (Rep. Paul and Gov. Johnson) are libertarian-leaning Republicans.