Cain makes strong showing in Iowa poll

Herman Cain’s star is continuing to rise, according to a new Public Policy Polling poll released Wednesday that shows him tied for second place with Sarah Palin in the first-in-the-nation caucus state of Iowa.

Cain is taking the nation by storm in terms of his polling results: following the first Republican Primary debate in Greenville, South Carolina, a focus group conducted by Frank Luntz declared him the unanimous winner. He led in the most recent Daily Caller/Conservative Home Tracking Poll, and continues to lead the pack in positive intensity score in Gallup’s polling. A CNN poll released May 27 had the supposed dark horse candidate among the top five, ahead of Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, and Tim Pawlenty.

With Huckabee and Trump, who took first and third respectively in the last polling PPP did in Iowa, out of the race, Romney leads the pack of primary contenders in Iowa, despite the fact that he has made little play to compete in the state.

Tim Pawlenty, the former Minnesota governor who announced his candidacy last week in Des Moines gets only 10 percent of the vote, coming in behind Newt Gingrich and fellow Minnesotan Michele Bachmann. That may not seem like a lot, but it is double the share of the vote he had the in the last PPP poll of Iowa, where he got just 5 percent.

The Iowa Democratic Party, however, is using the poll to attack Pawlenty, as well as the Republican field as a whole.

“[O]ne thing is clear,” said Chairwoman Sue Dvorsky in a statement, “Iowa GOP voters aren’t impressed with what they’ve seen so far.”

“This poll is a hard truth to swallow for Tim Pawlenty who has invested more resources in Iowa than any of the candidates — voters are clearly rejecting Pawlenty’s ‘hard truths’ and attempts to rewrite his record as Governor of Minnesota. By announcing his candidacy in Des Moines, Pawlenty has clearly and unequivocally staked his claim in Iowa, but so far has gotten less traction in cutting into Romney’s lead than a bag of burnt popcorn,” said Dvorsky.

She also threw a jab at Mitt Romney, who has said he won’t invest a lot of energy in Iowa after his disappointing second place in 2008. Dvorsky says that Romney runs the risk of a repeat of exactly that.

“Despite investing almost no time or resources in Iowa, Mitt Romney is enjoying a strong lead,” Dvorsky said. “These numbers make Romney’s attempts to lower expectations in Iowa a tough sell. Though he may claim these are ‘lean times’ it’s hard to see how he can opt out of the Ames straw poll with such a major advantage.”
Pawlenty’s numbers aren’t necessarily as bad as Dvorsky’s statement would suggest. PPP also asked voters whom they would pick if, in caucus style voting, it came down to Mitt Romney and one of the other candidates. Romney handily beats Palin, Cain, and Bachmann, but Pawlenty gives him a run for his money – tying the frontrunner with 41 percent of the vote.

Self-identified Tea Party members appear to disagree somewhat with Iowans as a whole. Sarah Palin is still the favorite of the candidates among Tea Partiers, taking 21 percent of the vote, followed by Newt Gingrich, who gets 15 percent. Romney gets 14 percent, Cain 13 percent, and Bachmann 12 percent.

If Palin opts not to run, Tea Party votes get redistributed among Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, and Michele Bachmann. Herman Cain picks up only a couple percentage points, putting him in fourth. Though Cain seems to be generating a similar level of enthusiasm as the former Alaska governor, his support is apparently coming from different places.

  • lookshop

    Who is Herman Cain?

    1. Former Chairman of the Kansas City Fed…supported Alan Greenspan…did not/does not support Fed audit…claims there is nothing to find
    2. Supported TARP….now says it was good in its original form but not what it morphed into….supported TARP at all
    3. Scrubbed from Cain’s official story is his long tenure as a director at a Midwest energy corporation named Aquila that, like the infamous Enron Corporation, recklessly dove into the wild west of energy trading and speculation—and ultimately screwed its employees out of tens of millions of dollars.
    4. Mr Cain was on the board of directors of the National Restaurant Association, a lobbying group.
    5. May have been a member of the Security and Prosperity Partnership of North America. He has denied this, but to Obama Ayers was just a neighbor and he never heard Wright’s sermons.

  • paco

    You misread me. I doubt Reagan knew much about Lech Walesa before he founded Solidarity in 1980 — nor should he have. But I guarantee the Polish desks at the CIA and the State Department knew about him. My point is that President’s don’t need to know the details — they only have to be able to make decisions based on firm principles — which is what Reagan did. As you say, he certainly had a grasp of foreign affairs.

    My comment was in response to Zackdoc who indicated he could not vote for Cain because of his lack of foreign policy expertise. I’ll give Cain a pass on not knowing about the “right of return” issue. Chris Wallace’s question about it was a little out of context. But even without knowing the issue, his instincts were right — it’s a decision that has to be negotiated by Israel. I think that would have been Reagan’s decison.

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  • SheerPolitics

    I do not believe any poll that has Newt in the top 4. After his gaffe in going after Paul Ryan, he should be forced to give up his GOP card.

  • J Baustian

    Looking at the internals of the PPP poll:

    1) I am surprised that Gingrich is still polling so well. Gingrich is the only candidate who is actively despised by a big chunk of the GOP electorate. These must be people who remember him from 1995-96 but haven’t been paying close attention since.

    2) Romney does not intend to put a lot of effort into Iowa — he tried to buy support in 2008 and it didn’t work.

    3) So I would like to see a poll with just the following: Pawlenty, Bachmann, Cain, and Ron Paul. (Plus, obviously, Christie, Palin, and Perry if they get in). I think if the caucus was held today, Bachmann would narrowly defeat Pawlenty, then Cain and Paul would be tied for third.

  • Barbbtx

    All aboard the Cain Train!
    This is the most excited I’ve ever been about a presidential candidate.
    I think he is the real deal, and it’s about time!
    There are awesome videos out there of his many speeches and interviews over the last few yrs.
    Here’s a good one from 2010 before the elections.


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  • Skepticus

    The more that I learn about Herman Cain, the more I like him. I especially like the fact that he has never held elected office and owes no political favors to anyone.

  • Texas Chris

    OMG Morpheus 2012!

    (Just kidding!)

    Ron Paul 2012!!!