According to the highly anticipated Des Moines Register poll, “Romney leads at 24 percent, Paul has 22 percent and Rick Santorum, 15 percent.”
I’ve been saying all week that I don’t trust the polls or the “experts.” There are too many variables. Things change. Caucus turnout is hard to predict. What is more, this poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, meaning that the order could easily change.
Having said that, it’s worth noting the Register’s scientific results track perfectly with the anecdotal information I’ve been hearing from smart sources on the ground.
What is more, the Des Moines Register poll has tended to get it right.
In 2008, this same poll had Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee winning Iowa. They did. In 2004, this same poll showed John Kerry leading. Kerry, of course, went on to win.
If you’re Mitt Romney, you’ve got to be feeling pretty good right now.