On Fox News Channel’s “The O’Reilly Factor” Tuesday, syndicated columnist Charles Krauthammer gave a somewhat surprising answer to host Bill O’Reilly’s question about who would win the presidential election if it were held tomorrow. “Obama,” Krauthammer replied.
“It will be narrow. If he wins either now or November in your hypothetical, it will be a narrow win because he will eke it out with these constituencies.”
Krauthammer said that with the two-point lead President Barack Obama has over Mitt Romney in polling averages, winning in the Electoral College will be hard for the Republican nominee.
“Because if you look at all the polls, the average is [that] you’ve got a two-point edge in the popular vote,” he continued. “It’s almost inconceivable that you would have that strong an excess in the overall vote and lose in the Electoral College.”
But nothing is set in stone, he added. In the 1980 election, former President Jimmy Carter had the early edge over Ronald Reagan, the ultimate winner.
“Remember,” Krauthammer cautioned, ”Carter and Reagan were very neck-and-neck until the last month, month and a half. I think all this negative stuff against Romney has had an effect of making people hesitant to switch from Obama to Romney. I think if Romney humanizes himself in the debates and does reasonably well the way Reagan did in his debates, and becomes acceptable to meet the threshold for president — he wins. And I think that’s likely to happen.”