Elections
Senate candidate from Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren addresses the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C., on Wednesday, Sept. 5, 2012. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite) Senate candidate from Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren addresses the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C., on Wednesday, Sept. 5, 2012. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)  

UMass Lowell poll: Scott Brown leads Elizabeth Warren by 1 point

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Alexis Levinson
Political Reporter

Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown is locked in a dead heat in his re-election bid, edging Democrat Elizabeth Warren by just one percentage point in a poll released one day before Tuesday’s election.

The poll, conducted by the University of Massachusetts Lowell for the Boston Herald, determined Brown has 49 percent of the vote compared with 48 percent for Warren — among likely Bay State voters.

In a very blue state where Mitt Romney trails President Barack Obama by 20 points, Brown’s narrow lead is a result of the support of a majority of independent voters — 58 percent to Warren’s 39 percent.

Brown also does better with crossover voters than Warren: Thirteen percent of Democrats say they support Brown, while just six percent of Republicans say they support Warren.

Other recent polls have favored Warren, giving her a lead of between four and seven points over the Republican incumbent. The UMass Lowell poll shows she is gaining momentum since it was last published in September, when Brown led 49-45.

The poll surveyed 800 likely voters from October 31 through November 3 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points, making a one-point lead statistically the same as a tie.

A Public Policy Polling poll released Friday conducted November 1-2 found Warren ahead by six points, 52 percent to 46 percent.

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