A new report by Gallup suggests that the GOP is unlikely to boost its support among Latinos to much more than 25 percent.
“It appears that young Hispanic adults will remain lopsidedly Democratic throughout their lives, [and] there is also no generational evidence at this point suggesting that they will become more Republican,” said the Monday report, which combines data from Gallup’s daily tracking polls of 26,264 Hispanics.
“Majorities or near-majorities across all age groups among Hispanic adults identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, including 50% of middle-aged Hispanics and 59% of older Hispanics,” said the report, which relied on data collected throughout 2012.
Hispanics boosted their share of the electorate to roughly 10 percent in 2012, with the white vote accounting for roughly 70 percent of the 2012 electorate.
Since the November election, in which Gov. Mitt Romney scored only 27 percent of the Hispanic electorate, GOP leaders have sought to bolster the GOP’s Latino outreach.
Some GOP leaders, including Sen. Marco Rubio, a Cuban-American in Florida, say the GOP’s support can be boosted by an immigration-law rewrite that provides an conditional amnesty to Latinos who have illegally immigrated from Mexico, El Salvador and other countries south of Texas. (RELATED: Poll shows little gain for GOP from immigration reform)
But any effort to win more than 30 percent of the Hispanic vote will be difficult, partly because Romney’s Latino performance wasn’t far below the 31 percent won in 2008 by Sen. John McCain, or the 30 percent won in 1988 by President George H. Bush.
Bush supported the 1986 amnesty, and McCain was the most prominent advocate in 2006 for an conditional-amnesty law.
An April 2012 survey by Pew Research showed that 75 percent of Latinos want a “bigger government providing more services … while 19 percent say they would rather have a smaller government with fewer services.”