The Heritage Foundation recently issued a comprehensive report showing that Sen. Marco Rubio’s plan to instantly legalize 11.5 million illegal immigrants would add $6.3 trillion to the nation’s budget deficits over the next 50 years. Heritage assumed there are 11.5 million illegals, but other estimates put the number at 33 million, which would mean adding another $18 trillion to the deficit. To put that in perspective, the largest U.S. budget deficit in history was $1.4 trillion in 2009.
Currently, the average illegal alien gets about $24,721 in taxpayer-funded benefits and pays about $10,334 in taxes. After full legalization, they will be eligible for a whole new panoply of government benefits such as direct welfare payments, Obamacare, Social Security and Medicare. Heritage concludes that the total government benefits to these former illegal aliens will then rise to about $43,900 per household, while the taxes paid by them will increase only modestly to around $16,000.
Rubio says Heritage’s report is all wrong because it fails to use “dynamic scoring.”
The sentence ends there. It’s like when Obama responds to questions about Benghazi by saying it’s a “political circus,” or liberals say their position on abortion is that “it’s a complex issue.” What isn’t political? What isn’t complex? Those aren’t answers; they’re deflections.
How about Rubio explain the hidden rays of sunshine that will appear by applying “dynamic scoring” to his amnesty bill?
Dynamic scoring simply requires that changes in behavior brought on by new rules be considered in evaluating the impact of those rules. I can tell you, for example, how dynamic scoring works with tax cuts.
Liberals say if we double tax rates, we’ll double the amount of tax revenue the government takes in.
But conservatives point out that when tax rates are low, people have an incentive to work harder and longer, to take extra jobs, and to move their money out of tax shelters, such as municipal bonds, and into stocks and business expansion. The economy explodes, jobs are plentiful, everyone makes a lot of money — and the government ends up with a bigger haul on a lower tax rate.
We know those incentives are there because we’ve seen them work. As detailed repeatedly by economist Thomas Sowell, the Treasury took in vastly more money after taxes were cut under Calvin Coolidge, John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan.
That’s dynamic scoring. Now, how does “dynamic scoring” change Heritage’s study showing that millions of new welfare recipients will cost America trillions of dollars?
It’s at least a counterintuitive position. If lots of uneducated, low-skilled workers boost a nation’s gross domestic product, then Haiti should be an economic powerhouse. For that matter, so should Mexico.
Rubio won’t say — or can’t say — what veiled incentives are lurking in his amnesty bill that will set the economy on fire.