I’m going to let you in on a secret. Writing political columns is largely about developing a narrative. Now, this can be unseemly and misleading — when certain facts are ignored in order to preserve or advance a bogus narrative. But when done correctly, narratives are simply the stories we tell to explain things. We are storytellers, which (despite today’s trend toward the wonky) has served us well for centuries.
Like sportswriters, we are held captive to the game. It’s nice to pre-write columns and then go to bed early, but nobody knows which way the ball will bounce; how the game will go. You can at least hope that one of the most interesting narratives emerge. In the case of the World Series, the best narrative would have been for the Kansas City Royals to become a “Cinderella story” — a team that finally won after 29 years of futility. A Giants victory was much less interesting, inasmuch as they had already won two World Series in the last five years. Luckily, the narrative of a savior, in the form of Madison Bumgardner, emerged to save the day (for the Giants — and the columnists).
For example, this development permitted the Washington Post’s Adam Kilgore to paint this evocative portrayal:
“Every Royal was a little boy once, and they all dreamed of standing at the plate in Game 7 of the World Series. Childhood fantasies do not include facing a 6-foot-5 force of nature with an invisible cut fastball and malice pulsing through his veins. They do not account for a little boy who grew up in western North Carolina and became a crusher of dreams.”
That’s good writing — especially when one considers it was probably written in the middle of the night. But he didn’t stop there. Kilgore went on to add that the Giants won “because they have Bumgarner and the Royals could summon only mortals.”
I’m not sure I’ll be able summon the same romance to describe the 2014 midterms, but I’ll sure as hell try. But while it would be a fool’s errand to attempt to pre-write the many narratives that might develop tonight as the votes trickle in, it’s never too early to start thinking about possible scenarios, and how one might frame them.
Here are a few of the possible narratives I’m thinking about:
1). Republican wave. Assuming Republicans do extremely well tonight — better than expected (let’s say that aside from the predictable victories, Scott Brown wins in New Hampshire and Larry Hogan wins in Maryland) — there will be temptations to suggest there is a huge mandate. This would be a mistake, but it will be a very real temptation — one that some columnists who know better will surely be unable to resist. But even without falling prey to this temptation, writing a wave story is pretty easy and straightforward for any political journalist. It almost writes itself.
2). Who needs a wave? While some liberals may look to cast a pall on a pretty good night, if Republicans merely eek out a slim Senate majority, I’m probably more likely to ask this question: “Who needs a wave?” Waves are, after all, overrated. A win is a win, right? If you beat a baseball team 3-2, the victory counts just as much as if you blow them out. and untenable. What is more (I’m about to get contrarian here), they’re also untenable. One might even argue that the GOP should be thankful not to have a wave. Waves don’t just bring in sturdy ships to shore, they also bring in battered and broken dinghies — who can be more trouble than they’re worse. What is more, people might over-interpret a wave election as a mandate — which this election most certainly would not be.
3). Republicans fail to take the majority. Let’s assume something goes wrong, and Republicans fall short. The recriminations begin. One could argue it was a mistake for the GOP to not more clearly define what Republicans are for — not just what they are against. You could also have stories about how this is the end of the GOP as we know it. After all, if they can’t win the Senate this year, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where they can win it …
4). The election that won’t end. There is a very real possibility that the election won’t be decided tonight. There will likely be a runoff in Louisiana in December, and possibly a runoff in Georgia in January. What is more, it might take days for the votes in the far-reaches of Alaska to trickle in. How do we write a narrative about that? You could speculate that these elections will likely end up going Republican, or you could lament the anti-climactic nature of politics (imagine a football game that doesn’t end for two months). Personally, I plan on finding a way to compare it to the 2000 election. But that’s just me. (Any ideas???)
… Okay, those are the two most obvious story lines. But some of us will be looking for more unique angles. Here are a few ideas I’m kicking around:
5). The war on women is dead/alive. If Cory Gardner defeats Sen. Mark Udall (aka Mark Uterus) it will, perhaps, be viewed as the official demise of the so-called “war on women.” Should Utall prevail, we can probably expect more such demagoguery.
6). Colorado is purple/blue. If Cory Gardner wins in Colorado, expect national Republicans to try to make him the model candidate for Republicans running in tough regions. If Gardner loses, expect Republicans to essentially write-off the state going forward.
7). GOP gets diverse. While everyone is focused on the Senate, yesterday I wrote about the many diverse candidates who have legitimate shots at being elected to the U.S. House. If many (or all) were to win, this could be a big, if underrated, story:
Elise Stefanik could become the youngest woman ever elected to Congress. My old friend Alex Mooney, whose mom immigrated from Cuba, could become the first Hispanic Congressman elected from West Virginia. Openly gay Republican candidates like California’s Carl DeMaio and Massachusetts’s Richard Tisei are running for House seats (I believe either would become the first openly gay non-incumbent Republican Congressman.) And Utah’s Mia Love could become the first black Republican woman and the first Haitian American member of Congress.
8). Scott Walker/Sam Brownback lose. It’s entirely possible that both Walker and Brownback could be defeated tonight (less likely, I suspect, for Walker). Should this happen, it would have both real and symbolic repercussions. Obviously, it would effectively end Walker’s candidacy for president, before it even starts. But think of the larger narrative. Both candidates shook things up by pushing for conservative reforms in their states. In the case of Walker, it was taking on the unions; in the case of Brownback, it was pushing for tax cuts — and boldly taking on Republicans who opposed them. Their defeat would likely send a message to future Republican governors not to get out too far ahead of their skis.
9). Ben Sasse/Tom Cotton are the future. No matter what else happens, it seems very likely that both Ben Sasse and Tom Cotton will be joining the U.S. Senate. This is no small deal. Both are young and accomplished and serious and relatively charismatic. Both are conservative, yet pragmatic. Both would likely be more conservative than the old guard, while simultaneously a moderating force on some of the tea party Senators. It might turn out that the addition of Sasse and Cotton to the U.S. Senate turns out to be the biggest story of 2014 that nobody is talking about.
10). Mitch McConnell, master of the Senate. In the last year, Mitch McConnell has fended off a tough primary challenge from a well-funded tea party candidate, and then (assuming things play out as we think they will) fended off a tough challenge from a member of the Kentucky aristocracy. In doing so, he has proven to be a wily political operator with a top-notch political machine. Should he win, McConnell would ascend to Senate Majority Leader, a huge accomplishment for a man who was marked for political death, and who had to fight a two-front battle against both conservatives and Democrats. He would emerge as the ultimate political survivor.
Any one of these 10 ideas could make a fine column. But which ones will you be reading about tomorrow?