A couple months ago, I pushed back on the notion that Republicans needed to craft big proactive policy proposals in order to win the midterms.
Just running against Obama, I reasoned, was enough. Nothing good could come from getting too “in the weeds.” Not everyone agreed; there a good natured, if spirited and intellectual, debate about this. But I’m pretty sure my viewpoint was confirmed by the midterm results.
The problem, of course, is that Republicans — having taken my strategic advice — managed to win the election without winning the argument (their only mandate, I suppose, is to be different from the president).
Now, this is not an unprecedented thing (it happened to Democrats in 2006), but Republicans must now be careful not to overreach — not to pretend the American public, by virtue of the drubbing Democrats received last night, suddenly agrees with every conservative public policy proposal. Because they don’t. And even if the voters who weighed in Tuesday night were meaning to endorse conservative policies, they are hardly representative of the voters who will show up to vote in the 2016 presidential election — much less the general public.
History is littered with the corpses of teams and individuals who thought winning once was a harbinger of things to come. Roberto Duran won that first fight against Sugar Ray Leonard. Then he celebrated. Hard. A few short months later, he would say, “No Mas!” The Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks looked to be on the verge of creating a dynasty; so far this year, they look a tad less intimidating. (Note: This lesson seems not to apply to the San Francisco Giants, who tend to win in every even year.)
But one needn’t enter the world of sports for examples. Here are just a few: Republicans won the midterms in 1946; Harry Truman won the presidential election in 1948. Republicans won the midterms in 1994; Bill Clinton was re-elected in 1996. Republicans won the midterms in 2010, Barack Obama was re-elected in 2012.
I don’t want to be too much of a downer. Republicans ought to celebrate what happened Tuesday night. It’s important to celebrate your victories — but not rest on your laurels. There is a distinction that I think is very important.
The lesson here is not for Republicans to go squishy or cower or retreat ideologically. It is instead for them to do the hard work associated with winning arguments. They must be serious and smart and focused. They must govern as competently as they campaigned. And they must be cognizant of the fact that the demographic challenges that haunted them in 2008 and 2012 among minorities, college-educated urbanites, single women, etc., didn’t magically disappear Tuesday night.
They must modernize, not moderate. They must be confident, but not cocky. This is not an argument for surrender, but rather, an argument for prudence — for that is the only way that conservative ideas will be given a chance to flourish in 21st century America.