It has become a tradition of mine to recount what I got right and wrong each year. This year, I promise not to bore you with a laundry list. Instead, I’m going to hit on just a few of the most noteworthy.
First, of course, the big thing that I (and almost every other commentator) got wrong was the stunning rise (and continuing success) of Donald Trump. Let me be clear: I did not see Trump doing nearly this well. And once he started talking, I assumed he would rise and fall. Instead, he has sustained his support for many months.
In fairness to yours truly, however, while I did not foresee Trump being the vessel, I think I did have a better appreciation for the opening a populist candidate might have this cycle. I wrote this back in April, long before Donald Trump declared his candidacy. Tell me this wasn’t spot-on:
…I think there is a huge underserved constituency in the GOP—and that constituency is what might best be termed populist conservatives. These folks tend to be white and working-class and who feel they’ve been left behind in America. They are culturally conservative—but they also want to keep government out of their Medicare.
Mitt Romney was arguably the worst candidate Republicans could have ever nominated to appeal to this constituency. But while candidates like Huckabee and Rick Santorum flirted with going full populist, something always seemed to keep them from really doubling down on it.
… The last time someone really tried this was when “Pitchfork” Pat Buchanan, and then Ross Perot, ran in 1992. It resonated then, but that was before the “giant sucking sound” really kicked in. Whether it’s globalization or immigration—or whatever “-ation” might have taken your job—it stands to reason that the same grassroots phenomenon that helped Buchanan and Perot tap into an underserved constituency might be even more potent today.
Again, I completely underestimated Trump’s ability to tap into this force, but I do take some solace in the fact that I at least recognized the zeitgeist. So I think I was ahead of the curve on spotting the trend, even though (like almost everyone else) I was woefully wrong about who would tap into this trend.
I was also wrong to think that Joe Biden would jump into the presidential race. There was a time when Hillary Clinton looked vulnerable, and Biden seemed to be sending signals that he wanted to run for president. At the end of the day, he opted out.
So what did I get right? Again, I suspect that throughout the year there were a bunch of little things I got right and wrong. But the one big thing that I had right—and basically nobody else saw this coming—was John Boehner’s decision to step down as Speaker of the House immediately after Pope Francis addressed Congress. I didn’t exactly predict it, but (here and here) I was the only commentator who recognized Boehner might seize this opportunity to head for the doors.
Even though it seems like a footnote today, Boehner’s exodus was a stunning development in 2015, and one that will have repercussions for years to come.
So there you have it: An admission of guilt, and a desperate attempt to redeem my credentials as an expert political prognosticator. As I’ve long admitted, nobody can tell you what’s going to happen. If we’re lucky, we can see long-term trends. But picking elections? Forget about it. Keep this in mind as we head into Iowa. Even the best political commentators are about as good at predicting the future as a monkey.
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