BEDFORD, N.H. — These days Jeb! appears more like Jeb:(.
But at McKelvie Intermediate School Saturday, the former Florida governor packed in a fairly large and enthusiastic audience. Here are four takeaways from the state of the Jeb Bush campaign.
1.) Jeb’s Closing Message In New Hampshire: Experience Matters
Jeb’s message in New Hampshire is that he is the candidate with the most and best experience at conservative governance.
“Who on the stage tonight has a proven record, a proven record of fixing problems — running to the fire rather than running away?” he asked the audience in Bedford Saturday. “Who has the record of not cutting and running but solving problems? You’re looking at him. His name is Jeb Bush.”
The reality is Jeb has a good case to make. As Florida governor from 1999 to 2007, he was among the most conservative and effective chief executives in the country. No one currently in the Republican presidential field can really match his track record.
The problem for Jeb is voters don’t always support the most experienced guy and this cycle Republican voters seem especially uninterested in such qualifications. Perhaps Jeb’s message will catch on in the closing days of the New Hampshire primary and Jeb will shock the world and regain his exclamation point. But that’s far from clear at the moment.
There is one more thing to note here. While making the case for a conservative with a record of successful executive governance, Jeb is also making the case against supporting “backbenchers” — implicitly Sens. [crscore]Marco Rubio[/crscore] and [crscore]Ted Cruz[/crscore] — who are more known for talking than doing. The only problem with this line of argument is sometimes backbenchers end up making good world leaders. Just Google Winston Churchill.
2.) If Only Jeb! Performed In Debates Like He Does At Town Halls
Jeb is comfortable in the town hall setting. At his town hall in Bedford, he answered questions engagingly and substantively. If only he was as good at debates with a wider audience he might be in a much better position today than he is. It’s true he is not naturally the world’s greatest debater, but there is another reason why he has failed to impress in debate settings: Donald Trump.
3.) Where Would Jeb Be If Donald Trump Didn’t Enter The Race?
It has become a piece of conventional wisdom to say Jeb Bush chose the wrong year to run — that this cycle Republican voters want an outsider, not a member of a political dynasty. Or they want someone tougher on immigration than Bush. Or that they would never vote for someone with Bush’s position on Common Core.
Perhaps all that’s true, but just maybe Bush’s real problem is that he ran the same year Donald Trump decided to enter the Republican race. It’s not too hard to imagine Bush being far more competitive if Trump never, as he likes to say, made the famous escalator ride down Trump Tower.
Remember, at the time Trump announced his candidacy, Bush was leading in the polls both nationally and in New Hampshire. After entering the race, Trump shot to the top everywhere and steadily destroyed Jeb’s candidacy by verbally brutalizing him on the campaign trail and in the debates. Most notably, Trump branded Bush as “low energy,” which stuck because it had the appearance of being true.
Basically, Trump just utterly and totally destroyed Bush’s image and reputation with the public. He sucked up all the media oxygen and prevented Jeb from being able to define himself. Jeb may have had been a tough, hard-nosed governor, but he quite obviously does not have the personality to deal with Trump’s bullying tactics.
4.) From “I’m My Own Man” To “Have You Met My Brother George?”
One sign of Jeb’s political desperation is that he appears to be changing his message about his family. At the beginning of the race, Jeb noted that while he respected his father and his brother, he was his own man. Now, the Bush family is popping up all over the place. You had Barbara Bush campaign for Jeb in New Hampshire Friday. His brother, former President George W. Bush, recently cut an ad in support of Jeb’s candidacy and is reportedly planning to campaign for Jeb in South Carolina (if Jeb makes it there).
Jeb has gone from declaring that he is his own man to reminding people of who he is related to. That’s probably not a strategy Team Bush was hoping to have to employ.