I was on CNN this morning, talking about a new poll that shows Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump running neck-and-neck.
But while the horse race numbers are interesting, some of the other findings that might be even more informative.
As we discussed during the segment, the election hinges on which issues voters prioritize. For example, if the election is about who can best handle an international crisis, then Clinton wins. But if it’s about who can best defeat ISIS, Trump comes out on top.
These are incredibly important policy issues, but not necessarily the most predictive of electoral success. Interestingly, of the two polling questions I think might end up being most predictive (who would you rather invite to your BBQ—and who do you trust on jobs and the economy) Donald Trump wins big.
It’s way too early to make any predictions, but it seems to me that you’re pretty wise to put your money on the guy who can help you get a job—and the guy you’d rather have a beer with. Think of it. When was the last time experience beat the beer test? Ironically, Trump is essentially winning on the same qualities that propelled Bill Clinton to the White House: Likability (in spite of personal scandals) and “It’s the economy stupid.”
Whether it should matter, or not, the fact is that the guy (or lady) you’d rather have a beer with almost always wins. And right now, that guy is Donald Trump. For better or worse, the person who can fix your economic situation almost always bests the person who knows more about foreign affairs. And, for now, that person is also The Donald.
If recent history is a predictor, that’s very good news for Trump. The only caveat is that history, of late, hasn’t been a great predictor.