Once the darling of the tea party who defeated establishment favorite (and then-Florida governor) Charlie Crist, Marco Rubio seemed poised to be the Republican savior. He was young, conservative, Hispanic, and eloquent. Then, things started to fall apart.
After championing a valiant, if risky, immigration reform overhaul, a chastened Rubio oscillated between thoughtful conservatism and base pandering, never fully finding his footing. Then came the 2016 presidential run, where he was relentlessly attacked from all sides. Chris Christie eviscerated him at that New Hampshire debate, to be sure, but the coup de grâce came when Rubio lost all but one county in his home state of Florida.
This was sad, but at least we wouldn’t have Marco Rubio to kick around anymore, right? Wrong.
If the knock on Rubio was that he was a calculating flip-flopper whose arguments are sometimes too cute by half, his post-presidential performance has done nothing to assuage those concerns. He had everyone scratching their heads when he endorsed Trump while publicly worrying that he shouldn’t be anywhere near the nuclear weapons codes.
And now, he has flip-flopped on his decision not to leave the Senate. Just a couple weeks ago, Rubio tweeted: “I have only said like 10000 times I will be a private citizen in January.”
What changed?
There is arguably no pursuit that peels the polish off of a rising star faster than politics. For this reason, you’ve got to strike while the iron is hot. This is why, despite being woefully unprepared, Barack Obama had to run for president in 2008 (an older, grayer, Obama—who had taken hundreds of votes in the Senate—would probably have been much less appealing, heroic, and glamorous). This is also why Chris Christie missed his window when he decided not to run in 2012—and why Marco Rubio felt he had to take the calculated risk of running for president this year.
But risks don’t always pay off. Barring a Nixonian-like comeback, Rubio’s future seems dimmer today than it did a year ago. He has regressed (has any major American politician dropped in stature more in the last couple years?). It’s now incredibly clear that the national Republican base isn’t buying what he’s selling, and—even if one assumes Donald Trump will lose the General Election—in addition to fending off national competitors like Ted Cruz, new rising stars Senators like Ben Sasse and Tom Cotton have emerged.
Did Marco Rubio simply miss his window of opportunity?