Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erodgan has purged thousands of Turkey’s most competent anti-Islamic State military officers, thus aiding ISIS and emboldening Syrian President Bashar Al Assad on the Syrian battlefield.
The Assad regime and its Russian and Iranian allies have never prioritized the fight against ISIS or Jihadist elements inside Syria. The modern day axis coalition instead focuses on eliminating any credible threats to Assad’s power within Syria. The two weeks after the Turkish coup have seen some of the most intense fighting in the five-year civil war, with Syrian rebels mounting their last stand in the city of Aleppo.
Aleppo, is the largest city inside Syria, with a current population of 300,000. Before the civil war, Aleppo was the commercial center of Syria. Complete control of Aleppo by the regime negates any serious rebel claims of legitimacy. The regime’s concentration on fighting rebels leaves the U.S. and its few hundred fighters as the only ground forces fighting ISIS.
ISIS is using this lull to plan future operations in the West, and how to ensure its survival, as the loss of its caliphate looks more likely.
As Assad completes his stranglehold over the Syrian battlefield, ISIS is likely to respond by sending hundreds of more militants into Turkey to seek refuge. Turkey has long struggled to close its border with Turkey and fight ISIS within its border, Erdogan’s purges will only amplify Turkey’s counter-terrorism problems.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted immediately after the coup that “Erdogan will likely deprioritize the fight against ISIS, undermining the counter-ISIS mission in Syria, as he focuses on consolidating power. He may even revoke past concessions to the U.S., including permission to use Turkey’s Incirlik airbase for counter-ISIS operations.”
The degradation of Turkey’s professional military officer corps could hinder the country’s ability to deal with the internal threat ISIS poses, and its ability to assist U.S. anti-ISIS operations in Iraq and Syria. ISW cautioned that “Erdogan may turn to non-state militants for security solutions while he lacks a strong military force behind him.”
“The generals who were leading the Turkey-Syria policy and the Turkish policy on Syrian Kurds are all in jail now, and we now see the crumbling of the Turkish security establishment,” Director of the Center for Turkish studies Gonul Tol at the Middle East Institute told The Wall Street Journal. Tol elaborated “This makes Turkey very vulnerable and weak, and will make it less confrontational.”
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