Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican nominee Donald Trump with two key groups that traditionally went to Trump, according to a Bloomberg national poll released Wednesday.
Clinton increases her lead with women by 17 percentage points, and is now leading with Trump’s key demographic: men. Clinton earns 46 percent support of men likely to vote, compared to Trump’s 44 percent.
“This poll shows movement toward Clinton with all the right groups it takes to win—including men and those without a college degree,” pollster J. Ann Selzer said in the accompanying statement. “Their alignment with Clinton is a formidable change in the algebra.”
Clinton also took the lead with voters without a college degree, earning 48 percent compared to Trump’s 44 percent. Clinton normally dominates with more educated voters, but Trump’s numbers with his base are sliding enough to give Clinton the edge with less educated voters ahead of Wednesday’s debate.
Clinton earned 50 percent compared to Trump’s 41 percent in the head-to-head poll. Clinton’s lead remained stable when the race was opened to include Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Clinton earned 47 percent, Trump earned 38 percent, Johnson earned 8 percent, and Stein rounded out the pack with 3 percent.
Both candidates have strong support within their party. Eighty-four percent of Trump supporters report they are “absolutely certain” that they will vote for the Republican nominee. Eighty-one percent of Clinton supporters said the same of Clinton.
Even though there was considerable support among each candidate’s base, 11 percent of Clinton supporters said it is possible they will vote for Trump in November, and 8 percent of Trump supporters said it is possible that they will vote for Clinton.
The Real Clear average gave Clinton a 7.3 percent lead, with 46.3 percent of likely voters compared to Trump’s 39 percent. Johnson earned an average of 6.7 percent.
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