Nate Silver, political statistician and founder of 538, went on “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” after the debate Wednesday evening to discuss how well the candidates performed.
WATCH:
Colbert started the interview by asking the simple and direct question; “Who will win?”
“Well, Clinton came into the debate with a seven-point lead in the polls before the debate, and the scientific polls actually show Trump winning the debate, which is a first. So it’s like Clinton was ahead ten points going into the game, and Trump just threw a pick six,” Silver told Colbert.
The instant CNN/ORC poll published Wednesday night called the debate for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, giving her a 13-point lead over Trump.
Colbert pointed out that Silver has an incredible track record when it comes to predicting presidential elections, but fell short with one candidate — the rise of Republican nominee Donald Trump.
Silver responded that his site has evolved. He pays more attention to polling than ever before, going on to say that Trump actually performed very true to results in each of the primaries.
Silver’s analysis on 538 currently gives Clinton an 87.3 percent chance of winning the election in November based on polling numbers. Trump only gets a 12.6 percent chance of winning. The analysis gives Trump no swing states — giving Florida, Iowa, Virginia, and Pennsylvania to the Democratic nominee. Colorado was supposed to be a swing state in the beginning of the race, but Clinton has an almost 90 percent chance of winning as well.
Particularly surprising was Silver thinks Clinton will win Arizona, a state known for being a relatively safe red state — although the state did go to former President Bill Clinton in 1992.
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