Republican nominee Donald Trump could win the key swing states of Florida and North Carolina if Republican turnout is the same as it was during the 2014 midterm elections, according to an Alliance/ESA poll released Thursday.
Trump led Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton 47 percent to 43 percent in the four-way poll, with Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein tied at 2 percent.
When the high Republican turnout model is introduced, those numbers change to 48 percent for Trump, and 42 percent for Clinton in the 3-day rolling poll. Trump’s lead decreased for the larger 5 day rolling poll. Trump earned 46 percent compared to Clinton’s 44 percent with high voter turnout.
Senator Marco Rubio of Florida led Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy in every model, including the “strong Democratic turnout” model.
Clinton carries a 1.8 percent lead in the statewide polling average, earning 46.8 percent compared to Trump’s 45 percent.
Trump trails Clinton in the straight Alliance poll, earning 43 percent compared to Clinton’s 46 percent. But when the high Republican voter turnout model is applied, Trump leads 45 percent to Clinton’s 44 percent.
Clinton currently has a 2.2 percent lead in the average, with 47 percent of the vote. Trump earned 44.8 percent.
Trump also led in Ohio, earning 44 percent compared to Clinton’s 41 percent in the 5 day rolling poll. When Republicans turn out, Trump rises to 47 percent, with Clinton earning only 39 percent.
Trump carries a slim lead, earning a 1.1 percent lead in the polling average. Clinton has 43.7 percent, and Trump earned 44.8 percent.
Trump still loses Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Nevada, even with high Republican turnout, according to the poll.
The polls are either 3 or 5 day rolling numbers, and were published Thursday. The poll is an extension of a previous poll conducted by the Auto Alliance and the Entertainment Software Association. The group began polling in 2012 to get a better understanding of the needs of car owners, but included a political element during the 2012 election.
According to the group, their numbers were “spot-on,” so they included polling information in 2014 and the fall of 2016. This week represents the first week the group introduced turnout modeling for all six states in the 2016 election season.
The group polls 175 responses per night, and conducts polling on weekday evenings. The three day poll would include 525 responses, and the five day poll would include 875 responses. There is no published data regarding the margin of error, or the status of the respondents as likely or registered voters.
All content created by the Daily Caller News Foundation, an independent and nonpartisan newswire service, is available without charge to any legitimate news publisher that can provide a large audience. All republished articles must include our logo, our reporter’s byline and their DCNF affiliation. For any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.