Opinion

Trump’s Tax Reform Promises A Boom. Hillary’s Trillion-Dollar Hike Guarantees Recession.

Lewis K. Uhler and Peter J. Ferrara National Tax Limitation Foundation
Font Size:

Few people understand that Trump’s tax reform plan builds on the House Republican Task Force appointed by House Speaker Paul Ryan earlier this year, and chaired by chief House tax writer Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady (R-TX). That means it arises from mainstream Republican tax policy architects.

Also not well understood is that the plan is powerfully pro-growth, leading to the creation of millions of new jobs, and the long overdue return of rising real wages. Trump’s overall economic growth plan would finally produce a real recovery from the 2008/2009 recession, with booming growth. Hillary Clinton’s criticisms of the plan are woefully misinformed and misdirected.

Trump’s proposed tax reform, as with the Ryan-Brady model, would cut taxes for all workers, with just 3 rates for individuals at 12%, 25% and 33%. The middle rate would apply to married couples earning $75,000 to $225,000. The standard deduction would be sharply increased to $30,000 for all married couples, $15,000 for singles.

The biggest difference between the two proposals is that Trump would cut the current U.S. corporate rate of 35%, highest in the world, to 15%, one of the lowest in the world, instead of 25% proposed in Ryan-Brady. That same 15% rate would also apply to the profits of “pass-through” smaller businesses such as sole proprietorships, S Corps, partnerships, etc.

The Tax Foundation scores the Trump plan dynamically as increasing GDP by 8.2%, with 2.2 million new jobs created. Real wages would grow by 6.3% above inflation, resulting from a 23.9% surge in capital investment. They estimate the plan would cut taxes by $3.9 trillion over 10 years, or an average of $390 billion a year.

But Wilbur Ross, private equity fund manager, and Peter Navarro, Economics Professor at the University of California, Irvine, argue that the Tax Foundation’s score is too narrow, failing to consider the effect of Trump’s tax reform in the context of his overall economic growth plan. In the October 25, 2016 Wall Street Journal, Ross and Navarro state that under their own dynamic score, Trump’s plan would “double our economic growth rate, create 25 million new jobs, boost labor and capital incomes, generate trillions of additional tax revenues, and reduce debt as a percent of GDP.”

They argue that besides the much lower tax rates, lower energy costs from Trump’s deregulatory liberation of American energy producers, freeing them to lead the world in production of oil, natural gas, and coal, along with other deregulatory policies, would boost revenues and booming economic growth, producing $2.4 trillion in new, offsetting revenues. Counting Trump’s spending cuts, Ross and Navarro conclude that the plan “achieves full revenue neutrality.”

Hillary Clinton, in sharp contrast, proposes another $1.3 trillion tax hike, increasing taxes on capital gains, corporate dividends, and any savings left after death. Ross and Navarro add, “Her tax hikes on businesses and ‘the rich’ reduce incentives to work and invest. She will increase the already staggering $2 trillion annual regulatory burden on the U.S. economy. She vows to put coal miners out of work and oil and natural gas on the back burner—raising energy prices and reducing America’s competitive advantage.”

Clinton echoes Bernie Sanders socialists in asserting that Trump’s tax rate cuts would return America to recession. But no economic theory posits that reduced tax rates somehow cause recessions. Not Keynesian economics, which holds just the opposite, that tax rate cuts are pro-growth, nor even Marxist economics.

Ross and Navarro say, “What one gets with the Clinton plan is even slower growth than we are experiencing now during the worst economic recovery since World War II.” The Tax Foundation says the Clinton plan “would lead to a 2.6 percent lower level of GDP” and “lower levels of wages and full-time equivalent jobs.” What that means in English is renewed recession. (756 words).

Lew Uhler is Founder and Chairman of the National Tax Limitation Committee and National Tax Limitation Foundation (NTLF), and served Ronald Reagan both when he was Governor of California and President. Peter Ferrara is Principal and General Counsel at the Raddington Group, an international economic consulting firm, and a Senior Fellow at the Heartland Institute and NTLF. He served in the White House Office of Policy Development under President Reagan.

PREMIUM ARTICLE: Subscribe To Keep Reading

Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!

Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!
Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!

Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!
Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!

Sign Up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!
Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!
Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!
BENEFITS READERS PASS PATRIOTS FOUNDERS
Daily and Breaking Newsletters
Daily Caller Shows
Ad Free Experience
Exclusive Articles
Custom Newsletters
Editor Daily Rundown
Behind The Scenes Coverage
Award Winning Documentaries
Patriot War Room
Patriot Live Chat
Exclusive Events
Gold Membership Card
Tucker Mug

What does Founders Club include?

Tucker Mug and Membership Card
Founders

Readers,

Instead of sucking up to the political and corporate powers that dominate America, The Daily Caller is fighting for you — our readers. We humbly ask you to consider joining us in this fight.

Now that millions of readers are rejecting the increasingly biased and even corrupt corporate media and joining us daily, there are powerful forces lined up to stop us: the old guard of the news media hopes to marginalize us; the big corporate ad agencies want to deprive us of revenue and put us out of business; senators threaten to have our reporters arrested for asking simple questions; the big tech platforms want to limit our ability to communicate with you; and the political party establishments feel threatened by our independence.

We don't complain -- we can't stand complainers -- but we do call it how we see it. We have a fight on our hands, and it's intense. We need your help to smash through the big tech, big media and big government blockade.

We're the insurgent outsiders for a reason: our deep-dive investigations hold the powerful to account. Our original videos undermine their narratives on a daily basis. Even our insistence on having fun infuriates them -- because we won’t bend the knee to political correctness.

One reason we stand apart is because we are not afraid to say we love America. We love her with every fiber of our being, and we think she's worth saving from today’s craziness.

Help us save her.

A second reason we stand out is the sheer number of honest responsible reporters we have helped train. We have trained so many solid reporters that they now hold prominent positions at publications across the political spectrum. Hear a rare reasonable voice at a place like CNN? There’s a good chance they were trained at Daily Caller. Same goes for the numerous Daily Caller alumni dominating the news coverage at outlets such as Fox News, Newsmax, Daily Wire and many others.

Simply put, America needs solid reporters fighting to tell the truth or we will never have honest elections or a fair system. We are working tirelessly to make that happen and we are making a difference.

Since 2010, The Daily Caller has grown immensely. We're in the halls of Congress. We're in the Oval Office. And we're in up to 20 million homes every single month. That's 20 million Americans like you who are impossible to ignore.

We can overcome the forces lined up against all of us. This is an important mission but we can’t do it unless you — the everyday Americans forgotten by the establishment — have our back.

Please consider becoming a Daily Caller Patriot today, and help us keep doing work that holds politicians, corporations and other leaders accountable. Help us thumb our noses at political correctness. Help us train a new generation of news reporters who will actually tell the truth. And help us remind Americans everywhere that there are millions of us who remain clear-eyed about our country's greatness.

In return for membership, Daily Caller Patriots will be able to read The Daily Caller without any of the ads that we have long used to support our mission. We know the ads drive you crazy. They drive us crazy too. But we need revenue to keep the fight going. If you join us, we will cut out the ads for you and put every Lincoln-headed cent we earn into amplifying our voice, training even more solid reporters, and giving you the ad-free experience and lightning fast website you deserve.

Patriots will also be eligible for Patriots Only content, newsletters, chats and live events with our reporters and editors. It's simple: welcome us into your lives, and we'll welcome you into ours.

We can save America together.

Become a Daily Caller Patriot today.

Signature

Neil Patel