With every fresh revelation regarding the ongoing investigation by Special Counsel Robert S. Mueller III into alleged Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, an interesting phenomenon kicks off in Washington, D.C.
The parlor game is: “Place your bets on when Trump will fire Mueller.” And in the hours since it was revealed that a search warrant was executed on records, premises and so on belonging to Michael Cohen, President Donald Trump’s longtime attorney, it’s been underway — big-time, moving at a neck-breaking pace.
But regardless of the Cohen news, which is certainly interesting, I’m not playing.
President Trump is not going to fire Mueller. There, I said it.
This is so, despite all the chattering, for one very simple reason: It would be the biggest signal of weakness that Trump could possibly ever send to his base, the nation and, indeed, to the world. And if there’s anything Trump and his base deeply revile, it is weak people in Washington, D.C. Trump isn’t, and doesn’t want to be, that guy.
Think about it. Perhaps the most defining characteristic that drew voters to Trump in 2016 — both in the primary phase and the general election — was the perception that he was a tough guy. Maybe even the ultimate tough guy.
He cracked heads together in business to get good deals done.
He ruthlessly fired people on “The Apprentice,” like a boss (because he was).
He didn’t mess around being “politically correct” rather than telling people the brutal, honest, tough truth.
He wasn’t prepared to go easy on America’s enemies — foreign or domestic — because it was the diplomatic thing to do.
Trump was the antithesis of the weak, go-along-to-get-along D.C. stereotype. A brash New Yorker, he would come to the nation’s capital, drain the swamp, switch up a whole load of policies, and Make America Great Again.
A lot of people, including myself, have been surprised by his success thus far in enacting his agenda — including parts of it that we support, but which seemed totally unfeasible given the way this town normally operates.
Part of the reason Trump has succeeded is because he isn’t your usual weak-kneed politician, like so many others who competed against him in the 2016 GOP primary, or Clinton, who many Americans do view as inherently weak because, heck, she couldn’t beat Obama in 2008, and she barely edged out Sanders — a self-described socialist who honeymooned in the USSR and should have had zero game in national politics — two years ago.
Trump may be willing to make compromises in his job, e.g., on the recent spending bill, which we know he said he did not really want to sign and has had huge misgivings about making law ever since. But one thing he will never compromise on is his image and reputation as a tough guy, who came to D.C. to kick butt and take names. And the #1 way of winding up looking weak would be to fire Mueller.
Let’s be clear: In view of the fact that Trump is not a criminal target so far as Mueller is concerned, he has no actual reason to shut the probe down, anyway. Oh sure, it’s implicated people who once served on his team — thus far, odd-duck foreign policy advisers and the dictionary definitions of the D.C. Swamp who inserted themselves into his campaign when it was obvious he’d be the nominee, namely Paul Manafort and Rick Gates. It may now have implicated Cohen. We don’t know for sure what is going on there.
But that’s a far cry from any hint of criminal charges or recommendations to Congress concerning Trump himself. Firing Mueller in these circumstances would not just look shady; it would make Trump look like what he called Sen. Ted Cruz back during the 2016 GOP primary: a p*ssy. Trump may be many things, but he’s not that, And moreover, he’d cringe at any action that would make him look like he is.
Trump also likely knows that, while much of the mainstream media likes to focus on the Mueller probe and its potential to ensnare him, this obscures two realities. One is that coverage of Mueller suggesting Trump is on his hit list is overcooked, but almost unavoidably so, because the media knows that alleged controversies involving Trump sell (they learned that during the primary, when they benefited tremendously from breathlessly covering his every move). The other is that for as much as certain cable channels may blare headlines about Trump and Mueller, the ruthless effectiveness of Mueller’s probe has thus far been most evident where the taking-down of some of DC’s most notorious establishment swamp creatures is concerned. These are people firmly entrenched within the Republican, and just as notably, Democratic elite. We know Trump hates Crooked Hillary with a passion. How likely is it that he’d really move to fire the guy who took down Tony Podesta, one of the biggest names in Clintonworld and one of the most Democratic establishment people in D.C. basically ever?
Not very. The combination of looking incredibly weak, and potentially eliminating a vehicle for gutting political enemies on totally justifiable, legitimate and fair legal grounds makes a Mueller firing a nonstarter for Trump — no matter what Beltway chattering classes may say, and no matter the Cohen news.
Liz Mair is a political and communications consultant. She is the president of Mair Strategies in Washington D.C.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of The Daily Caller.