Talk of a Blue Wave during the 2018 congressional midterms is reminiscent of the media’s coverage of a Clinton landslide during the 2016 presidential elections.
Media and Democrats have overlooked several key factors, from Trump’s approval rating within the GOP to over 4-percent GDP growth for the latest quarter.
Misreports are paving the way for yet another stunning defeat, with liberal pundits forced to explain again why they were wrong with allegedly data-driven predictions. Below are six reasons Democrats will not be able to wrestle control of the House and Senate away from Republicans in November:
1. Democrats have only won two of ten special elections for Congress against Republican challengers since Trump’s election.
Since Trump’s election, Republicans have won special elections for Congress in Kansas, Montana, Georgia, South Carolina, Utah, Arizona, Texas and Ohio. Democrats have only two victories, in Alabama and Pennsylvania, that were linked to Republican incumbents or challengers disgraced by bizarre sex scandals. When you’re running against Roy Moore or the GOP incumbent is someone like Tim Murphy, close victories shouldn’t be a sign of any Blue Wave.
According to The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, John Ossoff spent $30 million in a losing effort. GOP voters aren’t necessarily swayed by challengers with deep pockets. Trump won being outspent 2–1 by Clinton.
2. President Trump has an 85-percent approval rating within the Republican Party.
Liberal pundits don’t realize that GOP voters aren’t voting for a “generic Republican” this November. Polls ranging from a 14-point lead to a 4-point Democratic lead aren’t entirely relevant to GOP voters in historically conservative districts. They’re voting in large part to ensure their representatives don’t take marching orders from Nancy Pelosi or impeach the president.
Most importantly, Trump has the second-highest approval rating within his party at the 500-day mark since WWII. Republicans overwhelmingly support Trump, despite the never-ending histrionics from Hollywood, the press and Twitter warriors. They’re going to show up in November like they’ve done in the ten prior special elections since Trump’s election, where the GOP is 8–2.
3. Of Americans surveyed, 77 percent believe mainstream media reports “fake news” and only 31 percent have a favorable view of the Democratic Party.
Yes, Democrats have outperformed prior voter turnout figures in recent special elections, but they’ve still lost 8 out of 10 Congressional special elections. This Blue Wave is primarily media-driven, not policy focused. Furthermore, the media and Democrats are reviled by a large segment of the population.
4. Democrats haven’t achieved more than a net gain of 23 House seats since 2006. They currently need 23 seats in the House and the Senate looks great for Republicans.
Even in the 2008 House elections, with the election of President Obama, Democrats only managed a net gain of 21 seats, and that Democratic party was for more unified and enthusiastic than today’s version.
5. Democrats are running former CIA officials or candidates too far to the left in conservative districts.
In an era where voters elected Trump to drain the swamp, Democratic candidates Elissa Slotkin in Michigan and Abigail Spanbergerin Virginia are former CIA officials. As for the Medicare for All candidates running in red states, they’ve yet to justify a Mercatus study that states “a doubling of all currently projected federal individual and corporate income tax collections would be insufficient to finance the added federal costs of the plan.”
6. The economy, Supreme Court picks, tax cuts and other achievements under the Trump administration.
With Kavanaugh about to be confirmed as Trump’s second SCOTUS pick, a possible 5-percent GDP figure in late October, and the Mueller Probe fizzling away with Papadapolous receiving a shorter sentence than certain traffic violations, the Blue Wave is another fantasy.
H.A. Goodman is the author of “But Her Top Secret Emails” and “Debunking The Trump Russia Myth.”
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of The Daily Caller.
