Goldman Sachs’ top investment strategist Peter Oppenheimer warned investors, saying, “the bear market is not over, in our view,” referring to stock market performance.
“The conditions that are typically consistent with an equity trough have not yet been reached. We would expect lower valuations (consistent with recessionary outcomes), a trough in the momentum of growth deterioration, and a peak in interest rates before a sustained recovery begins,” he wrote according to Yahoo Finance. Oppenheimer’s last warning about a market downturn came in September, before stocks plunged in mid-October due to persistent inflation, Yahoo Finance notes.
Oppenheimer added, “we continue to think that the near-term path for equity markets is likely to be volatile and down before reaching a final trough in 2023,” despite some hope investors have going into the new year, Yahoo Finance says.
Goldman Sachs says the ‘bear market is not over’ for global stocks and predicts the bottom https://t.co/EQ6chcfxdb
— CNBC (@CNBC) November 21, 2022
Economists identify a bear market when a major stock market index such as the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones Industrial Average drops 20% 0r more, according to Forbes.
A similar assessment came from Goldman’s competitor Morgan Stanley, with CIO Mike Wilson telling CNBC “the final move of the bear market probably comes next year in the first quarter, when the earnings finally catch up to where we think they’re going to be next year,” before the market rebounds heading into 2024, Insider reported.
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson predicts the S&P 500’s bottom, calls it a ‘terrific buying opportunity’ https://t.co/UPkhVP33bD
— CNBC (@CNBC) November 21, 2022
Top central bankers central bankers such as Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, have raised the possibility of slowing Federal Reserve increases, Fortune reported. She said “it will probably be appropriate, soon, to move to a slower pace of rate increases,” after “reassuring” inflation data earlier this month, according to Fortune.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 13: The Goldman Sachs logo is seen on at the New York Stock Exchange on September 13, 2022 in New York City. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
Her comments came after inflation data showed a 7.7% 12 month increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the lowest 12 month increase since January of this year, based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The CPI measures “the change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services,” the Bureau states.