Ukraine has a limited window left to make strategic gains in its faltering counteroffensive as men and war materiel runs thin, and Biden administration officials are urging Kyiv to alter its strategy, The New York Times reported, citing U.S. and Western officials.
Too many of Ukraine’s forces and top-tier combat units are concentrated to the north and east, where Bakhmut lies, instead of in the south, where Ukraine hopes to sever Russian supply lines and demolish the “land bridge” between Russia and occupied Crimea, the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told the NYT. American military planners have advised Ukraine to reallocate forces toward Melitopol and Berdiyansk and be open to accepting more losses before weather conditions turn unfavorable in the fall.
Ukrainian commanders have divided troops and equipment in roughly equal amounts across both fronts, likely a legacy of Soviet military doctrine that called for even distribution of resources to minimize conflict between military factions, according to the NYT. (RELATED: ‘Not Looking For A Third World War’: Biden Keeps Reversing Course On Giving Weapons To Ukraine)
One U.S. official told the outlet Ukrainian troops are dispersed over too wide an area and need to hone in on a single strategic location.
Two officials briefed on a call between Ukraine’s senior military commander Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi and senior U.S. and British military leaders said Zaluzhnyi agreed, according to the NYT.
Now three months into the counteroffensive, Russian troops haven proven more resilient and dug-in than anticipated. Ukraine broke through a single layer of Russian defenses in recent days and could take the town of Robotyne soon, a move officials said would be a positive indication of future progress.
They don’t see the counteroffensive as a failure, but noted that its successes have been smaller than hoped for.
“We do not assess that the conflict is a stalemate,” national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Tuesday, according to Politico. “We are seeing [Ukraine] continue to take territory on a methodical, systematic basis.”
“I cannot handicap or predict how things will end up unfolding in the course of this war,” he added as a caveat, according to Politico.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has demonstrated a puzzling reluctance to pause the battle for Bakhmut and ease up on trying to retake the nearby Donbas territory, the officials said. American military doctrine calls for establishing a line around Bakhmut to hold off further Russian advances while devoting the majority of troops, armor and firepower toward a single target.
… to resource Ukraine in a war of attrition into 2024. And all sides—Ukr and partners—avoiding finger-pointing but also facing up to and learning from errors and missteps. More kit not the only answer. What, eg, does this mean for training programmes over next 18 months?
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) August 22, 2023
However, only four to six weeks remain before fall weather brings rain and muddy conditions, which could stall armor and air operations, according to the NYT. Ukraine is also running short of mid-level commanders and rotating in more units to bolster front-line forces as the force takes casualties from Russian minefields and artillery.
“It’s taken longer than Ukraine had planned,” U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said Sunday. “But they are making limited progress.”
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